Roasty Toasty Weekend Resulted in New High Temperature Records Across Eastern Ca and Western NV……Cooler Weather Ahead……Storm Off Shore Splitting and Precip Amounts Dubious This Morning…..
Monday April 23, 2012
Posted at 9:19 am by Howard
Yes…….Toasty was the word for Sunday and for any day in April for that matter with an official High Temperature record set in Bishop of 91 on Sunday. It has been 63 years since Bishop has reached a high of 90 on the 22 of April, 1949. So 91 is the new record high!
In the high country around Mammoth, we have been keeping temperature records for a much much lesser period. Less then 20 years actually. So yes it was a record as well for Mammoth. And temps were about 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Today all areas will be a little cooler with clouds and some Isolated thunder possible. The Mammoth forecast high today is 66 or about 4 degrees cooler. Bishop”s Forecast is 88 today Monday.
Some interesting features on the WX maps the past 24 hours. Pattern over the far west had/has a couple of southerly wave’s aloft that popped some pretty good storms over western NV Late afternoon yesterday with another wave coming through Today. Yesterday’s southerly wave popped a thunderhead over the San Bernardino Mts with the moisture quickly blown off to the NW with more action that developed over the Southern Sierra northeast into west central NV with a few strong storms as well. Of note the wave came through during max heating so it had good thermal support. The next wave is now on shore over Southern Ca and will lift NNE today firing off more convection as well, especially over the Mountains in and around the Mojave Desert. Some isolated TSRW’s over the Sierra possible as well. The point of interest is that it is April!! And….these are heat enhanced storms from a quasi southerly wave! (Not a true easterly wave)
With record heat still forecasted for parts of Nevada, it is still a tough call for the amount of precipitation the Sierra will get. HPC yesterday was very aggressive in bringing as much as 1.7 inches of QPF to the west of the Crest for the Wednesday/Thursday period. This morning I noticed that CRFC only gives the area west of Mammoth .3 inches through Thursday AM.
The problem is that the heat and the feedback from the surface heating is helping to support the current high pressure system over the Great Basin longer…..probably by diabatic thickness processes. Although the upper high will eventually break down, it will act to help split and significantly weaken the cut-off that is being dragged east by trof to its NNW. The Dweebs feel that the upper high over the Great Basin will take its toll on the cut off that is currently forming. At the same time, model trends are once again taking the cut off further south into the west coast close to the Mex/Ca border Wednesday night..then lifting it NE through Central AZ. I Will take a good look at the new 12z Monday EC later today….then the 00z and 06z GFS tonight.
Mammoth is in the split between the cut off low to the south and the trof to the northwest. Yes…moisture will be generated as the cut off approaches over the next 36 hours and move into Ca, however it will be just moisture without any significant amount of dynamics this far north. Energy from the system to the northwest is more likely to energize whatever moisture is left by the cut off on Thursday as is it is negative tilt. So yes, we will get showers but how much is still in question. The Dweebs did not like this system last week and still does not like it today! Potentially, precipitation amounts could be light…meaning somewhere in the 1 to 6 inch range over the upper elevations.
I will update tomorrow AM.
What ever happens Wednesday night and Thursday will likely be out of here for a good weather fishing opener Saturday AM. It will be breezy but showers or any measurable precipitation is unlikely at this point. Temps will climb into the 60s on the lake Saturday PM.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.