Archive for April, 2012

Zonal Flow Aloft Brings Lots oF High Clouds To The High Country Today Then Strong Height Rises to Bring a Touch of Early June Temperatures This Weekend…..

A west To east flow across the Eastern Pacific will drag lots of high clouds over the high country today. The next upstream system will amplify the pattern over the golden state with strong height rises and warmer temps along with clear skies Thursday.  Further height rises are expected Friday as the upper ridge shifts over Ca this weekend with much above normal temps. High temps in Mammoth today will be in the upper 50s today…then low 60s Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 60s Saturday and close to 70 Sunday! If Mammoth hits 70 on Sunday that would be the first time this year!.  Night time lows will be in the 30s…. Strong run-off conditions are expected this weekend so if you out near area streams be extra careful! Especially in the Walker River area to the north.

Also of interest…..there will be buildups of the Summertime Variety …..IE Towering Cu. This will be due to the high mid April Sun and the extra warm temps (Convection). Although our air-mass is pretty dry, there may be a few showers in the late afternoon and early evening hours over the crest, both Friday and Saturday….possibly some thunder!

Longer Range:

Not much to chat about until we get closer to that time frame.

The ECMWF has the next upstream short wave trof splitting like the GFS. However, the EC “never” brings it inland through the west coast…..rather, it retrogrades it to the southwest and leaves it as part of a Rex block while building a ridge to its north near 145 to 155w. The result is a cold northwest slider that comes into California, early Thursday morning the 26th. This would be a very windy pattern with cold weather returning and the possibility of snowfall Thursday. The 1000-500mb thicknesses are in the 540dm to 546dm class with this pattern.

On the other hand…the GFS boots the cut-off to the coast then opens it into a trof over California Thursday/Friday during about the same time.  Showers are certainly a possibility…however, unlike the EC, with a much higher snow level as the oncoming air mass is much milder. (500mb-1000mb)~(558dm-552dm) thickness. The GFS solution is much less dynamic and quite a bit different. Now with that said….the CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days are wetter and colder than normal. However, they have exceptionally lower then normal confidence levels. IE 2 or 3 on a scale of 1 to 5. Apparently, they are leaning more toward the GFS solution which is less amplified.

SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

The Dweebs will take a close look at this Monday AM……as well as the Fishing Opener…..>>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

A beautiful week shaping up as the upper jet now in the Pacific Northwest…..Warmer weather expected Today and Tuesday….Cut off low may develop next week and remain off shore untill further notice!

Mammoth Mt began MVP For New Members The 14th!  If You have been Waiting To Get In on “The Unlimited Seasons Pass” For Next Winter….You Have Only Two More Weeks To Apply…And you can start using it immediately! ($659.00-Adult)  Ends April 30th….  SEE: http://www.mammothmountain.com/

It was a excellent storm over the weekend with more then 2.5 feet of fresh powder on Mammoth Mtn. Since then ridging has built into the California with above normal high temps expected all week here in the high country!

Normal highs here at 8000 feet this time of the year is in the mid 40s…today high is predicted to be 55…tomorrow 59. Lows in the 30s. So let the runoff resume!

The outlook this week shows ridging aloft that will flatted a bit mid week as the northwest receives more rainfall.

An approaching weather system from the west resumes the building of heights over California Thursday for high temps moving into the low 60s then mid 60s by Friday into Saturday. Yes,  high temps will be 20 degrees above normal next weekend! Nigh-time lows will move well into the 30s….so this week into the weekend will incur quite the runoff!

As indicated below in the longer range…this Friday and Saturday afternoons, may have some diurnal isolated showers and Thunderstorms…..(Summer like) (See below)

Based upon the record highs in the Owens Valley next weekend which are in the low 90s set back in 1950 and 1989, this will not be a weekend with record highs, but nevertheless, a taste of very late spring to early summer weather!

Longer Range:

The next weather system will be approaching late Sunday….

Winds will increase Sunday……

However…the new 12z Monday GFS actually has some convective showers (Summer Like) over the Central Sierra as the first good thermal trof develops over the Sierra Friday afternoon with a convergence setting up. This again may set up again Saturday…..Isolated TSRW?  Due to respect for Tom C. The Dweebs will not use the word Snow-melt Cu/Showers…. 😉

Active weather returns the early part of the next week beginning the 23rd with long range GFS bringing good cold upper low down the west coast. The system seems to be splitting over the weekend.  I like the ECMWF’s idea of the slower scenario as there is a pretty strong Warm Ridge north out of Mexico that is supported by the feed back from increased thickness/Diabatic Thickness process. Also Mid Latitude Omega Block will slow things down as well….

So the less progressive solution is preferred at this time. That is until about mid week…..or Cut-Off Low may hang off shore through the end of the week!

Have an excellent Week………………..!!!!!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Warming Trend this coming week…….Breezy In Part…..Highs in the 50s/60s on the Way….

NOTE: Current Storm Sequence ended at 5:45pm Saturday with an additional .24 inches of Cold Liquid and another 2 inches of snowfall from upslope, bringing the storm total to 32 inches.

PS>>>>Mammoth Mt begins MVP For New Members Today Sunday!  If You have been Waiting To Get In on “The Unlimited Seasons Pass” For Next Winter….You Have Only Two Weeks To Apply! ($659.00)  Ends April 30th….  SEE: http://www.mammothmountain.com/

 

Overall the Dweebs snowfall forecast worked out better then most other forecasters….. as http://mammothweather.com successfully forecasted between 2 and 3 feet for the upper elevations, early this past week. Mammoth Mountain reported 30 inches storm total over a 72 hour period….2.5 feet.  Telemetry showed about 2.36 inches of cold liquid on Mammoth Pass.

Although the Dweebs see another system for about the 24th of April…..I am doubtful that we will experience a precip event that will dump similar amounts of snowfall for that upcoming storm near the end of the Month…..

The end of April usually brings smaller showery storms to the Mammoth area as well as into early May. Then fewer systems right into June are possible……Climo-Wise….Fathers Day is usually the last frost here in Mammoth. Although Storms in the 2 to 3 foot range have occurred May….they are rare!

Additionally, about this time the continent warms sufficiently to shift the system of differential heating from the Eastern Pacific ocean to the land mass.  Thus the upper jet quickly becomes stronger on the east side of trofs rather than on the west side. This tends to pull upper trofs eastward quicker. At the same time, this prohibits the digging that is more evident during winter when the main gradient remains over the ocean due to the fact that continent is cooler than the ocean.

The upcoming week will feature a nice warm ridge that will build in Sunday into Monday. High temps today will be in the 40s, and near 50 by Monday. Expect high temps to climb to near 60 by Wed/Thur. Lows at night in the 20s and low 30s.

Across the pacific, a zonal flow pattern will develop midweek with the upper jet taking aim again on the pacific northwest. It will not be until the 24th that precipitation/snowfall returns to the Mammoth area.

I would say that our snow pack is at peak now for the season over the upper elevations……….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Celebrating 32 years of Mammoth Lakes

Weather Forecasting This year!

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.