Archive for April, 2012

Potent Short Wave Is Now Making Its Move…….Another foot + is expected today on Mammoth Mtn….

Mammoth Pass shows 1.36 inches of liquid fallen since 1:30pm the 11th….

So 13 to 14 inches of new is approximated over the Mammoth Crest “storm total” so far as of 4:00am Friday.

Another 12 to 14 inches is expected today…..

Over night models runs showing the upper low shifting inland near Cape Mendocino. The best lift will be over the southern half of the sierra from the central sierra south. Better orographics is expected to the south as upper jet is south,  near Pt Conception…..there lies the base of the upper low.

Increased precipitation rates is expected this morning as favorable dynamics combine with the approach of a strong short wave trof that moves through our area. Periods of Heavy Snowfall is expected for our area today though about 5:00pm. Best upper diffluence will shift into southern/central NV tonight…

Expect another foot+ of snow today over the upper elevations….especially above 8000 ft.

The Dweeber…….

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Mt picks up 5-6 inches 24 hours amounts….Another 16 to 20 inches possible by Saturday AM…….

The Winter Storm Watch has been changed by NWS to a Winter Weather Advisory….

So the Town of Mammoth does not expect a 12 inch snowfall within a 12 hours period…..it will take just longer….

Snow showers are in progress this morning with just light accumulations expected early today as the latest band of precipitation moves into the area. Updated QPF from CRFC shows up to 1.75 inches of liquid on the west side. The Town of Mammoth is still expecting another foot of snowfall in town by Early Saturday AM……

As of note, precip totals have not verified well with either HPC or CRFC from this storm sequence. However….the models did not handle the QPF and the 1st system very well as it was delayed because of the ridge to the east and thus weakened during the process.

Latest Forecast:

Mammoth Mtn 16 to to 20 inches……

Noise of 130knot upper jet now makings its way into South Central Ca.

Snowfall picking up later this morning and will continue through Friday…..

SNOWFALL FORCAST FOR 8200 foot level……

Light accumulation’s expected today…..  1 to 2 inches

Tonight….3 to 5 inches

Friday 3 to 7 inches

Saturday’s weather up-slope snow showers in the AM

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Light Snowfall Today….Then Heavy Snowfall Expected Thursday Night Into Friday Morning…..Improving weather Saturday with warmer weather Sunday through Mid Week……

Winter Storm Watch Thursday Night/Friday

Sierra Crest Storm Totals revised downwards to….up to 2.5 Feet over the next few days…

The upper low opened up yesterday….has become negative tilt with most lift to the south over Southern Ca this morning. Axis is SE/NW with active portion of 90% RH at 700MB into the sierra at this moment. This moist band will drop to 70% by early afternoon. Snowfall rates will be the highest this morning and then taper off a bit this afternoon.  CRFC give the area just west of the Mammoth Crest about .7 inches by Thursday 03Z… or up to 7 inches over the crest with 2 to 4 inches at 8000 mainly today.  The lack luster performance of the first system will cut this weeks snowfall totals down to about 2.5 feet over the crest by Saturday AM.

There will be a break later tonight in the snowfall from about mid evening through Thursday morning.

The next “Dynamic” system will enter the picture with strong upper jet support for our area later Thursday afternoon with the bulk of the snowfall Thursday night through about sunrise Friday. Additional snowfall is expected Friday…however the heaviest period appears to the from 06Z to 12Z Friday.  Up to a foot is possible in the Town of Mammoth and another 18 to to 24 inches over the upper elevations by Friday evening…..

By Saturday AM, A period of upslope may add another inch or two to the eastern slopes. Saturday will be cold with highs in the 20s and 30s. A 534dm thickness pool will spend its time in the area Saturday.

Longer Range:

Outside of a weakening trof coming through on the 23rd of April, there may be not much going on the rest of the month. The next possible stormy period may be in the first week of May.

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.