Archive for May, 2012

Strong Winds…Red Flag Warning today/NGT…then Fab Weekend taking shape w/70s returning by Sunday and through much of next week……

Thursday AM Update:

Very Warm antecedent conditions ahead of a cold front that is expected to come through this evening will create strong gusty winds, exceptionally low humidity leading to high fire danger in Mono County. The same conditions are expected for the Owens Valley with more wind highlighted because of the topography. A high wind warning is currently in effect with the stronger winds beginning about 2:00pm this afternoon. Travelers will encounter strong down sloping winds up to 70MPH below canyons especially central and southern portions of the valley. The highest Fire Danger is expected today and this evening in the Owens Valley.  Bishop hit 94 degrees yesterday with highs possible up to 91 today……Mammoth was 74. With strong 500mb-1000mb thickness packing ahead of the cold front later this afternoon very strong wind is possible later today.

There were no wind advisories for the mono county area indicated today. However, Red Flag Warnings also hoisted for Mono County below 8500 ft.

 

Tuesday AM Update

Forecast models initialized a small scale upper low between Mammoth Lakes and the Nevada border at 12z this AM. The little feature is progged to shift due east today across Nevada with mainly diurnally induced showers from Central NV north and north east of the upper center.  The Dweebs noted that there was north wind this morning at the Bishop AP. An indication that they were on the back side of the upper low. The low is vertically stacked.  Temps today will be cooler in the Owens Valley with highs in the mid 80 VS yesterday’s 90F.

Mammoths temps began as low as 30f this AM here at the Village. So better sliding conditions this morning.  Today’s highs will be slightly cooler….in the mid 60s.

All areas will be warmer tomorrow as short wave ridging shifts into our area and area of surface convergence moves west again. Some afternoon buildups possible. However, with as dry as the air-mass is…there is little chance of any TSRWs Wednesday as models are marginal at best for instability.

Next upstream trof coming in Thursday. It will become pretty breezy Thursday PM and then expect cooling behind the trof. Friday will be sensibly cooler with highs back down into the low 60s. Another Warm-up is expected over the weekend with highs returning to the low 70s by Sunday. It will be a bit warmer Monday as well.

 

Weather Outlook:  for the 21st through the following Friday

Checking the 6 to 10 day mean heights…”confidence is high” that the mean positive height anomaly will progress east and be centered over the inter mountain west. So expect highs in Mammoth to be mostly in the low to mid 70s. This represents much warmer then normal temp for this time of the year.  So enjoy a beautiful week for the last full week that Mammoth MT is open for the 2011/2012 season.

Extended outlook for the Memorial Day Holiday weekend:

The pattern over the far west is expected to be progressive with upper height anomalie over the intermountain west expected to progress to the Central CONUS.  Weak Trofing in the mean is expected over California and so for the Mammoth area, expect the likelyhood of more afternoon breeze at times and some what cooler temps over the holiday.  Mean 500mb heights are still expected in the upper 570s, so 60s is still reasonable. lows in the 30s. the outlook is currently dry through Memorial Day. In that stronger trofing is expected in the pacific northwest over the holiday…..Confidence in this pertictular extended outlook is less then average at this time. Will update this weekend for the next.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Another Beautiful Week Ahead…..Outside of Some West Wind and Afternoon Build-Ups…..WX Shifts into late Spring Mode….

Monday AM Update:

Thermal Trof is currently over Nevada and so expect west wind to come up early today. New 12z Nam/WRF has 700mb moisture less then 70% for Mono County and the combination of the lowest thickness and track of the low ejecting to the NE will confine precip to Northern Ca. Additionally, the combination of early west wind….Surface convergence over Nevada and weak closed upper low moving in to the north of us will keep any TSRWs well north of Mono County Today.  The next short wave is a bit stronger, however it too will be to the north of us. (DRY) I do see a stronger gradient for more afternoon wind Thursday/Ngt and possible wind advisories for Kern County Deserts north possibly to Southern Inyo county. Friday Am has 1000-500mb thickness for some short duration freezing temps Friday AM.

From Last Night:

No significant changes to our pattern. There are a couple of weak systems that will bring some afternoon clouds but no thunder is expected over Southern Mono County. A very small scale upper low will move through north central Ca Monday. In that Mammoth is to the south of that system, expect a bit more afternoon breeze and a few degrees of cooling.

The next upstream system looks to move through as an open wave now unlike the close low scenario expected a few days ago. This will provide a little stronger Zephyr wind Thursday into Friday with again a little cooling.  High Temps over-all expected to remain between 65 and 72 degrees the whole week with night time lows from the mid 40s to the upper 30s…..  The run off will continue……

Longer Range:

Taking a peak at the longer range…..

Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 4 look normal as far as the precipitation anomalies. However, May is usually a fairly dry month anyway as compared to March/April.  Temps are expected to be Normal to slightly above normal.  Then…..There is an increasing bias for warmer then normal temps the first week of June.   Can it be that we are really done……?

 

ENSO:

Latest from CFS calls for weak El Nino Conditions this Summer then ENSO neutral conditions returning by the Fall.

 

 

The Dweeber………………………………………:-)

 

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

High Latitude Blocking Pattern to Promote Split Flow Over the Conus Next Week…..Nothing to get all that excited about the next week….

A cooling trend is still underway through Saturday the 5th of May with breezy weather. Nighttime lows will dip below freezing but no hard freeze expected…..Upper 20s in town this weekend. Highs in the low 50s… as mentioned before, this should help set the snow up in the mornings for a few days….for you skiers and boarders.

Then warm a up occurs Monday through Thursday and daytime highs will rise into the 60s mid-week with lows again above Freezing….

Otherwise the maps are a mess!  Models show an eastern pacific ridge amplifying from the pacific northwest into western Canada while a weak cutoff low forms over Central Ca then drifts southward over northern Baja. This makes sence with a blocky pattern over the high latts of Canada. (Split flow)

Good Time for a long Siesta…… Vios Con Dios…..

See you on the 14th of May…………………..:-)

 

 

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.