Happy 4Th of July!!!!Dry Seasonal Weather to Highlight the 4th…then Above Normal Temps For The Weekend…..Monsoon Moisture To Hold Off For The Time Being……
Tuesday July 3, 2012
Posted at 8:54 am by Howard
I will be Brief…..
The last of the chilly trofs is currently moving through the pacific NW. While most of the news has been on the horrid heat across the CONUS…..parts of the Pacific NW has just come though the 3rd coldest June on record with some ski resorts reopening…. Climate extremes is more like what is occurring….
Sunny days and cool nights with some afternoon clouds.
High temperatures in Mammoth will average between the upper 70s and low 80s through Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Afternoon and early evening Zephyr winds, “some days”, will be occasionally moderate with gusts 15 to 30MPH in the late afternoon/early evening.
Looking over the guidance this morning….no surprises. A dry SW flow will continue to keep monsoon moisture from coming up into Southern Mono County. The moisture currently moving north from old Mexico is being shunted NE well to our south. And although dew points have really come up over Southeast Ca…the Dweebs do not see any of that effecting our area anytime soon.
With that said, you do not need Monsoon moisture to get high based Thunder as recently seen yesterday. All you need this time of the year is heat, a little cooling aloft and wamo!; a marginally unstable column. Today and into Friday, it looks pretty stable. Weak SW flow will mostly dominate aloft for the foreseeable future. With that said, further out in time….there will be both periods of instability aloft due to things like the formation of Coll’s off shore and SSE flow at 700mb that we will have to keep our eye on. True SSE flow aloft may not be in the cards until about mid month……
With that said…the Dweebs are extremely concerned about the high based TSRW threat and dry lightning the second half of July and August because of the Tinder dry forest in the Central and Southern Sierra. With the cold water bias over the eastern pacific and the upper atmosphere responding by weak trofing, the Dweebs feel that there is less likelihood of wet thunderstorms then dry. It would be very wise for locals to take the time now and clear brush, pine needles and small trees under the canopy as prescribed by the local Mammoth Lakes Fire Dept.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.