Thunderstorms expected for the High Country Later today, Tonight and into Sunday….Drying expected Later Sunday night then Fair and very warm again by midweek…..
Saturday August 4, 2012
Posted at 9:18 am by Howard
Thunderstorms in progress. Scattered light showers here at mammothweather.com so far. Small cluster of showers moving northwest with improving weather later soon………
As a note…the NWS has noted over 500 cloud to ground strikes have occured with a few small fires as well.
As was the case last Tuesday night, another MCC developed during the late afternoon near the Death Valley area. Flash flood warnings were hoisted by the NWS and flooding occurred from very heavy rains on some area roads,from a nearly stationary MMC.
Over the past few days an easterly wave over AZ pumped another round of Monsoon moisture into SE California. That moisture and some of it deep, was being pulled into Southern Ca from an area of lower pressure off the SC coast. The forecast models are all in agreement in lifting the weak upper low from the SSW of us…..NNE along the subtropical ridge western ridge boundary. The system has sheer thus good dynamics.
At the moment, the cloudiness that we had this morning was due to the outflow for the Aforementioned MCC last night. The flow was SSE into Eastern Ca. Currently there is an area of mid level dryness that will allow more sunshine later this morning. That will allow enough heating to convect widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The tempo is expected to pick up late this afternoon or early this evening as spokes of vorticity add UVM and further air mass modification. Storms are expected to be wet with as much as .50 to .75 hundreds of an inch under the shafts of TSRWs…the first half of tonight. Temps: Near 80 today then 70s Sunday with nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler drier nights will arrive Sunday night and again Monday night. It will get very warm again by mid week………(mid 80s)
Campers should be prepare for the possibility of moderate or even brief heavy showers during the evening hours. Showers will become more widely scattered after midnight. This pattern could keep the rain going on and off well into the night until the air-mass has turned over enough for some stability. The outlook for Sunday calls for scattered thunderstorms. Although, there is less confidence at this time on the coverage. The main wave of dynamics will Shift NNE out of the area by Sunday night. Next week looks dry for the 1st half with very warm temps returning to Eastern California Tuesday through Thursday.
Big picture…..Hot ridge that’s been over Texas will shift west next week and bring some of the warmest weather of the Summer to Eastern Ca. The heat remains on through Mid month….
The CFS model then shifts the heat back east of the Mississippi again, the 3rd week of August. So more seasonal weather is expected in the high country as we head toward September.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.