A very warm week ahead is expected for the high country with some record highs possible by weeks end…..Isolated Thunder Returning By Tomorrow….Highs All Week In The 80s….
Monday August 6, 2012
Posted at 9:09 am by Howard
Warming aloft will continue the next few days as the Continental high once again builds west. Located over the Texan panhandle yesterday…it has already shifted west to New Mexico this morning and will be located over Northeast AZ by Tuesday morning. Thereafter…the GFS has it near the Utah/NV border by Thursday AM. Through the process…..SE flow will move back into SE California while the Sierra Crest of Southern Mono County remains under a dry SW flow at 500MB. By tomorrow morning Tuesday…a quick shot of south east flow at 700MB will bring possibilities of a few isolated storms to Eastern Ca. However SW flow returns that evening so positive conditions for air mass modification and moisture advection really do get get established for more then isolated Thunder.
By Wednesday, the 00z Monday GFS has an area of clockwise flow at 700mb centered over Mono Lake. So a strengthening area of mid level capping is initiated. Then a shot of southerly flow returns with less capping Thursday at 700MB. So Thursday may be a better day for air mass modification and TSRWS, although upper level capping is stronger at 500mb Friday into Saturday. All in all…..isolated thunderstorms will be of the garden verity this week. The big message is that it is going to get very warm again here in the high country this week with the longest stretch in very warm weather in several years expected. The forecast models do not generate any “strong” Monsoon push and/or conditions favorable for Air Mass modification “at this time” for the High Country of Southern Mono County. The long range keeps the heat over the far west until the last week of August.
High temperatures over Mammoth will reach 80 today and slowly climb to the mid possibly upper 80s by next weekend….that is barring any change in the 700MB/500MB flow pattern from the south or SE.
A message to our locals………..
Enjoy it while you can…..the first day of Fall is only 6 weeks away!!
PS: Some thoughts…..
In that last winter was painfully deficient of upper level blocking near Greenland over the Western Hemispheric, SSTAs have trended well above normal over the Davis Straits and around Greenland suggesting that there will be anomalous blocking in that area when the QBO shifts positive the end of this year. Massive Arctic outbreaks into the mid Lat’s may occur, especially over the west 1st, ( late Fall/Early-Winter), then east of the Divide in January-March. Although strong -NAO/ -AO are associated with stronger ridging over the far west. IE (+PNA), In a moderate El Nino winter, the cold arctic air build up is more likely to be flushed out over the Atlantic from time to time opening up the wavelength for storms for the west coast, if the subtropical jet is strong enough due to El Nino. Hopefully…El Nino becomes at least moderate in the NINO 3.4 region this Fall!!!
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.