Archive for August, 2012

In the wake of Last Nights Thunder…..It will be a drier day Sunday….then warmer Monday into next week…Expect above normal temps for the high country….

Nice light show last night. Some light rain showers as well with a total of .09 here at Mammothweather.com. Blusa was cut short unfortunately….

There was quite a bit of drying in the mid levels after midnight . However, dew-points at the surface still in the 30s, so a few isolated TSRW’s are possible this afternoon. These will definetly be diurnal in nature so campers do not need to worry here in Mammoth about getting wet after sunset.  Looking at the NWS radar at 10:30  Sunday morning, it was evident that showers and thunder have developed over Western NV, well east of Mammoth Lakes.  The storms are moving north then NW just to the east of Reno, NV. The back edge of the wave that came through last night is currently along the CA/ORG boarder…..again drying is under way in the air mass over Southern Mono County. So only a few isolated Thunder storms are expected if that.

Next Week:

The models have come into agreement that the upper high over the Texas panhandle this morning will retrograde west this up coming week to a position near the Utah/NV border by Thursday. Thus….It will get hot again over Eastern  Ca and very warm here in Mammoth with highs moving back into the low 80s as early as Tuesday/Wed then mid to possibly upper 80s by Thursday. Isolated mainly high based thunderstorms will develop again by mid week with the possibility of wetter storms later in the week with in increase in aerial coverage.  Stay tuned……we have a lot of heat and thunder to come yet!!

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Thunderstorms expected for the High Country Later today, Tonight and into Sunday….Drying expected Later Sunday night then Fair and very warm again by midweek…..

Saturday Evening:

Thunderstorms in progress. Scattered light showers here at mammothweather.com so far. Small cluster of showers moving northwest with improving weather later soon………

As a note…the NWS has noted over 500 cloud to ground strikes have occured with a few small fires as well.

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As was the case last Tuesday night, another MCC developed during the late afternoon near the Death Valley area. Flash flood warnings were hoisted by the NWS and flooding occurred from very heavy rains on some area roads,from a nearly stationary MMC.

Over the past few days an easterly wave over AZ pumped another round of Monsoon moisture into SE California. That moisture and some of it deep, was being pulled into Southern Ca from an area of lower pressure off the SC coast. The forecast models are all in agreement in lifting the weak upper low from the SSW of us…..NNE along the subtropical ridge western ridge boundary. The system has sheer thus good dynamics.

At the moment, the cloudiness that we had this morning was due to the outflow for the Aforementioned MCC last night. The flow was SSE into Eastern Ca. Currently there is an area of mid level dryness that will allow more sunshine later this morning. That will allow enough heating to convect widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The tempo is expected to pick up late this afternoon or early this evening as spokes of vorticity add UVM and further air mass modification. Storms are expected to be wet with as much as .50 to .75 hundreds of an inch under the shafts of TSRWs…the first half of tonight. Temps:  Near 80 today then 70s Sunday with nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler drier nights will arrive Sunday night and again Monday night. It will get very warm again by mid week………(mid 80s)

Campers should be prepare for the possibility of moderate or even brief heavy showers during the evening hours. Showers will become more widely scattered after midnight. This pattern could keep the rain going on and off well into the night until the air-mass has turned over enough for some stability. The outlook for Sunday calls for scattered thunderstorms. Although, there is less confidence at this time on the coverage. The main wave of dynamics will Shift NNE out of the area by Sunday night. Next week looks dry for the 1st half with very warm temps returning to Eastern California Tuesday through Thursday.

Big picture…..Hot ridge that’s been over Texas will shift west next week and bring some of the warmest weather of the Summer to Eastern Ca. The heat remains on through Mid month….

Longest Range:

The CFS model then shifts the heat back east of the Mississippi again, the 3rd week of August. So more seasonal weather is expected in the high country as we head toward September.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mostly Sunny Wednesday and Thursday……Then an Increase of Thunder over the Weekend…..Temperatures to Remain Above Normal….

 

Wednesday AM:

Flash flooding was reported near the Death Valley area at about 10:00pm last night due to a small MCC that developed. Dew points soared at the Bishop AP overnight into the 50s with light rain reported at the Bishop at the sametime. Over the Southern Mono County Sierra, dew points remained in the low 30s. In that a dry southwest flow is expected to continue here in the high country today and Thursday, we should remain dry. This is because the aforementioned SW flow along with a strong 500mb upper high cell work in tandem to keep the Mammoth area Thunder-free today through Thursday night.  All bets are off beginning Friday afternoon, and especially the weekend as an upper level disturbance forces the upper ridge to tilt eastward and the flow at 700mb becomes more south/north oriented. This along with increased monsoon moisture and dynamics is expected to allow air-mass modification to occur in the Mammoth area for a return of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. In addition, in that there is a weak Vt center that will cross Central Ca, a wave of dynamic lift may develop. Should this wave come through at night, there may be a period of nocturnal storms that would persist well beyond the usual diurnal expectation.

A drier air-mass along with increasing stability is expected to occur after the passage of a Vort center early next week.  Tuesday looks dry with warmer temps at the moment.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.