UPPER LEVER LOW TRACKING SE DOWN THE COAST THEN INLAND THURSDAY……
Monday October 8, 2012
Posted at 3:26 pm by Howard
Wednesday PM update: Wednesday 2:55pm mst
The latest update shows the upper cut off still dropping SE off the south central coast. latest guidance shows that it taps into a fairly rich source of subtropical moisture. The upper center comes inland south of Santa Barbara Thursday morning. With good divergence developing in east to north quad. Most of the precipitation for the Mammoth area is expected beginning by Thursday afternoon with highest RH expected beginning later afternoon then into the night.
freezing level will lower Thursday to 10K then to 9500 by Friday with the snow level about 1000 to 1500below that level. Mammoth above 9000 may pick up a few inches of wet snow…..and over the crest as much as 3 to 5 inches.
the dweebs still on vacation but will update now and then………
Blocky patterns especially in Oct are fickle. This one is no different. There have been enough runs the the guidance is in agreement to take the cut off down the coast then inland across Southern Calif Thursday. The Dweebs feel that the majority of the precip will occur as upslope over the Sierra from moisture circulating around the upper low. 700mb RH and 0c isohyet flirts with Mammoth for a few days beginning Late Tuesday. So a few inches of wet snow possible latter Tuesday through early Friday. The weekend should be fair with warmer temps…..that are seasonal for mid Oct. There after the westerlies take a hike to the north fora while.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.