Last of the 70s for this year today…………….Then unsettled Weather on the Way!
Friday October 19, 2012
Posted at 7:34 am by Howard
12:15 PM Saturday:
Models still a bit stingy on QPF over Southern Mono County. Highest I could find was about one inch and that may be pushing it.
Winter Wtorm Watch is in effect for the Tahoe area northward but not Mono County. Amounts will be advisory levels most likely with some 2 to 4 inches in town Monday/NGT and up to 8 to 10 inches over the crest. The snow level will begin about 8500 feet and lower later Monday.
2nd wave for Wednesday shows lowers heights but less QPF.
As the Dweebs indicated Thursday AM, this is more of an unsettled pattern with generally light amounts of snowfall for the residential sections of town with borderline moderate amounts over the crest.
Keep in mind that our roads are still very warm from several 70 degree days this past week….so snow will not a big concern for roadways in town. However, icy slick conditions will develop as temps get below freezing, and snowfalls for several hours especially Monday night. In that us locals are a bit rusty in handling our cars on icy pavements…its a good idea to drive extra slow Tuesday Morning.
The outlook still looks dry for the following weekend as heights rise and temps return to the 60s.
18zGFS comes in a little further south with the upper jet, more like the EC on Tuesday/Ngt. QPF adjusted up to an inch over the crest beginning Monday through Thursday AM period next week, good for up to a foot now over the crest……
From this Morning:
The Dweebs playing catch-up this morning on the changes that will become apparent as we say good by to the last of the 70s for the Fall of 2012 and hello to more mid fall weather. The players for this change is the typhoon initiated amplification going on across the pacific and the eventual series of fronts that will bring subsequent cooling along with light amounts of precipitation. This does not look like a major precipitation producer for the Mammoth high country. However it will still bring several inches of snowfall to the upper elevations next week.
There are four important points to the forecast for the next week.
1. Moisture from old hurricane Paul will not be a factor in the upcoming forecast anymore.
2. The amount of amplification upstream driving this long wave south.
3. The upper jet that really does not favor the central or Southern Sierra.
4. There is some coupling of the subtropical jet Tuesday night into Wednesday that will need to be watched.
So far the main focus will be the Northern Sierra according to the latest runs of modeling as the cut-off of heaviest QPF is pretty dramatic south of Alpine County. Thus we will have to be satisfied for the Rt Rear entry region that effects the area mainly Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday may be more interesting as there appears to some coupling of the subtropical jet. I am not sure how that will play out for the South Central Sierra. I will update on that over the next few days.
2:30PM Friday Update:
Based upon this mornings run of the GFS which was pretty light on the QPF, through Wednesday at 5:00am next week it shows about .50 of H2O. IE 3 to 6 inches over the upper terrain. The Dweebs just had a look at the new 12z ECMWF and it has about an inch of water equivalent through Wednesday Morning. The ECMWF if correct….would give the potential of about a foot over the crest by Wednesday AM.
Will Up date in the Morning or sooner if appropriate……………………..>>>>>
Meanwhile, I would like to share with you a link to a long range forecaster that has my respect as far as his approach to this winter. His name is Steven DiMartino, and although he forecasts for the East Coast, his analysis definitely can be used, by back engineering his reasoning for the west coast. He incorporates among other variables, the MJO and QBO which will be significant players this winter as well as the AO and NAO.
Once again the evidence is showing that the winter for California will not be a big one, water wise. However, reading though the lines it should be better then last year.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.