Looks like the Euro Model will be the Winner as far as Snowfall here in Southern Mono County……as of 9:00AM Monday, 8 Inches has fallen at the “Main Lodge” and more coming down!!
Monday October 22, 2012
Posted at 8:51 am by Howard
“Orographics on Steroids”
10.5 inches at Mammoth Weather.com (8200)
18 inches of new at the main lodge with approx 1.88 of H20 according to the Plot. (not adjusted)
The crest working on possibly 2 feet by Morning…….
Mammoth Pass reporting approx 1.62 inches of H20 eq.
It is still snowing with light to at times moderate snow showers.
Lets face it……All forecasters blew this one.
But who cares! 🙂
Mammoth Pass received .92 inches as of 3:00pm. It is quite possibe that Mammoth Mtn got about a foot today.
There still may be a few inches more to come over the next few days. However, the majority is on the gound from this storm.
The placement of the upper jet was critical for the snowfall forecast here in Mono County. As was the case, the upper jet axis according to the 300mb analysis on the NAM this morning, was right over Southern Mono County at 12Z Monday. That was a good 100-150 miles south of the 24 hour earlier forecast. That’s not good for a snowfall forecast!
Additionally, the system moved in quicker as the heavier precip moved in early Monday AM. It looks like the ECMWF will be the winner with its wetter scenario in forecasting an inch of QPF over the next few days. The Dweebs may even have to update it a bit higher!
What is exciting is that the Dweebs have for the first time, subscribed to the EC and have good access to all the significant parameters effecting our local weather! This should make it easier to dial in a snowfall forecast for the Mammoth area after spending sometime with the model.
As of 9:00AM Monday, it is estimated that close to 9 inches has fallen at the main lodge with between 4 and 5 inches here near the Village at Mammoth. It will be a few more hours before the front moves through so a few more inches is certainly possible! I see no reason why we will not see 5 to 6 inches here at the Village at Mammoth now by this afternoon.
Over the next few days a few more impulses will be coming through. One Tuesday evening and another Wednesday at 15Z (8:00am)
So it is time to do a little homework and see how much more this pattern has in store for us. Will update this evening after taking a look at the new 12Z ECMWF out this afternoon.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.