More beautiful Fall weather both today and Tuesday followed by cooler, unsettled weather mid-week….Dry weather pattern to continue until further notice……
Monday October 29, 2012
Posted at 9:35 am by Howard
Something to Watch:
Last night ECMWF model showed a pretty healthy storm moving into the high country about the 8th of November. It is in the outer reaches of its skill. (240HRS) Something just to watch and not to plan on yet! It paints over a foot of snowfall!
Additionally……the new 12z wrf has a little more precip for this Thursday for the high country. However, at that distance in time, it is much less reliable than the global models which are still pretty dry. The Dweebs do not like to use the WRF which is a higher res model beyond 24 to 36 hours. The 00Z ECMWF has a scanty .02 to .03 for the crest. Even if you doubled that it would be hard to get up to an inch over the crest.
No Surprises this evening….
Next in coming Trof mid-week will weaken as forecasted a few days ago. There appears to be even more splitting now as shown on the new 00z Tuesday GFS….Precip accumulation on both GFS and EC is scant as it progresses SSE through the Central California. It seems more likely that any precipitation that occurs with the front will split around the crest with showers possible over the Central San Joaquin Valley and some showers over Nevada. Sure the high country could get some showers, but the Dweebs don’t expect any 3 to 6 inches….. Maybe a dusting to an inch? or maybe nothing measurable (<.01) Best news is that the freezing level will come down to 10,000 again by Thursday night and stay there into Friday. (Better snow making conditions) The freezing level over the weekend takes a hike again…. The reason for the splitting is pretty simple. The long wave trof is anchored north of Hawaii and the pattern is 4 wave. (Stable) There is a ridge in the mean anchored over western CONUS. So any trofs (Short waves) coming in will weaken rapidly as they head toward that area of high pressure.
Both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are dry for the Central Sierra California. The less reliable Climate Forecast System is showing the dryness continuing through Thanksgiving. I think that mother nature is saving herself for…………………..December!!! (:<}
The Dweebs have been watching Sandy the past few days. Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo indicated this morning that the 13.88 foot storm tide last evening just before 9 pm in the New York Battery area was a new record, exceeding the level of 11.2 feet set in the Great Hurricane of 1821. The difference this time is that the surge came at high tide with a full moon while in 1821, the surge came at low tide, making the Great Hurricane of 1821 a stronger event.
The 1821 hurricane was the last of 5 such storms to target NYC from 1815 to 1821 during the Dalton solar minimum, a period not unlike the current period when Irene and Sandy hit in successive years.
PS…. Keep your snow dances going!!! The Music! TURN IT UP SOME!!
While the East Coast was being battered by Sandy…..with the latest recon at 8:00am PDT indicating a surface pressure of 543MB (record Low for so far north) the west coast enjoyed fair warm weather with highs throughout Mono County in the 60s and 70s. Night time lows here at the village were in the mid 30s this morning.
GFS Day 3 through days 11 means, hemispheric pattern is 4 wave (stable). So other than a little unsettled weather about Midweek here, the weather will remain dry for the high country for the next week and possibly two. The Thursday system will wash out as it comes into the Central Sierra. However it will bring some wind…clouds and cooling. It may also bring a dusting at elevations above 6000-6500 feet. The Mammoth Crest may get an inch or two. Expect high temps to cool into the upper 40s to low 50s by Friday. The following weekend looks fair with daytime temps in the 50s…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.