Cooling Trend to Begin Wednesday with some showers possible from a weakening front Thursday…Then a fair weekend……A healthy storm popped up for Nov 8th!
Tuesday October 30, 2012
Posted at 9:29 am by Howard
Currently, we still have a pesky upper ridge over head that will flatten then shift east Thursday. A strong frontal system will weaken as it moves into the mean ridge position over the next 48 hours. Some light snow or snow showers are possibly Thursday along with gusty winds and cooler temps. Any snowfall accumulation over the crest will be very light. (1 to 2 inches max if that!)
Now lets see what may be in store for the Mammoth area weather-wise, for the period around the November 8th-9th. Yesterday morning, the Dweebs brought up the possibly of a significant system that might bring some needed snowfall to the high country of the Mammoth area around the 8th/9th of NOV . Although the last two runs of the deterministic ECMWF has done some back peddling, it is important to look at both its Ensembles Means, as well as the Climate Forecast System for support to any significant change in the weather out 240 HR as compared to what we have now.
The Ensemble means still have a healthy trof deepening into our area between the 8th and the 10th of November. 500mb heights are about 564dm on the 8th and lower to 559DM Friday afternoon the 9th. Additionally, CFS for the week the 7th through the 13th show a change in the configuration of the closed upper height anomaly over Kamchatka, Russia from its current position. The blocking upper height anomaly splits next week with the eastward extension headed into the Gulf of AK. The down stream effects is to set up a negative height anomaly N/S at about 120West. This would deepen a long wave trof over the Pacific Northwest south along the 120west meridian. The upshot is that although the recent deterministic runs of the EC are back peddling, the ensemble means are still showing a stormy period around/between the 7th and the 13th of November. I would not be surprised if later deterministic runs flipped back to that system around the 8th/10th of November. The better news is that the following week (14th thru the 20th the negative height anomaly retrogrades to the west coast and is even deeper!
Keep doing the snow dances………..but turn it up some!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Something to Watch:
Last night ECMWF model showed a pretty healthy storm moving into the high country about the 8th of November. It is in the outer reaches of its skill. (240HRS) Something just to watch and not to plan on yet! It paints over a foot of snowfall!
Additionally……the new 12z wrf has a little more precip for this Thursday for the high country. However, at that distance in time, it is much less reliable than the global models which are still pretty dry. The Dweebs do not like to use the WRF which is a higher res model beyond 24 to 36 hours. The 00Z ECMWF has a scanty .02 to .03 for the crest. Even if you doubled that it would be hard to get up to an inch over the crest.
No Surprises this evening….
Next in coming Trof mid-week will weaken as forecasted a few days ago. There appears to be even more splitting now as shown on the new 00z Tuesday GFS….Precip accumulation on both GFS and EC is scant as it progresses SSE through the Central California. It seems more likely that any precipitation that occurs with the front will split around the crest with showers possible over the Central San Joaquin Valley and some showers over Nevada. Sure the high country could get some showers, but the Dweebs don’t expect any 3 to 6 inches….. Maybe a dusting to an inch? or maybe nothing measurable (<.01) Best news is that the freezing level will come down to 10,000 again by Thursday night and stay there into Friday. (Better snow making conditions) The freezing level over the weekend takes a hike again…. The reason for the splitting is pretty simple. The long wave trof is anchored north of Hawaii and the pattern is 4 wave. (Stable) There is a ridge in the mean anchored over western CONUS. So any trofs (Short waves) coming in will weaken rapidly as they head toward that area of high pressure.
Both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are dry for the Central Sierra California. The less reliable Climate Forecast System is showing the dryness continuing through Thanksgiving. I think that mother nature is saving herself for…………………..December!!! (:<}
The Dweebs have been watching Sandy the past few days. Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo indicated this morning that the 13.88 foot storm tide last evening just before 9 pm in the New York Battery area was a new record, exceeding the level of 11.2 feet set in the Great Hurricane of 1821. The difference this time is that the surge came at high tide with a full moon while in 1821, the surge came at low tide, making the Great Hurricane of 1821 a stronger event.
The 1821 hurricane was the last of 5 such storms to target NYC from 1815 to 1821 during the Dalton solar minimum, a period not unlike the current period when Irene and Sandy hit in successive years.
PS…. Keep your snow dances going!!! The Music! TURN IT UP SOME!!
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.