West Coast Atmospheric River Winds Down this Week Lending to Inside Slider Pattern by Sunday….Further Retrogression Next Week Lends to Possible Cold Snowy Pattern….
Monday December 3, 2012
Posted at 7:12 am by Howard
Tuesday Am Update:
Remains of last short wave will move through as mostly warm advection precip. IE Rain up to 10K. About .4 to .5 QPF is in the picture for the crest.
Wednesday night’s snow level drops to about 8500…however system is mostly through. Inside slider pattern this weekend for chance of snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Breezy cooler….just what we need!!!
Highs the next few day in the upper 40s…..lows above freezing…..Then teens by this weekend…..
Nice Wet Storm!!! Mammoth Mountain has great set up for the Christmas/New Year Holidays!!!!!!!
5.5 foot storm total at the main lodge with a lot more over the upper elevations…… Storm total 10.24 inches of Water!!!!
If you were going to design a winters snow pack and Summers runoff you would not do it any differently than what mother nature has done naturally this Fall. The current set up of a rich sierra cement base with high water content, will get compressed throughout the remainder of the winter/spring and will last much longer for the Summer of 2013…..”Great for the Water Supplies”
The weather for the upcoming week with be highlighted by a continuation of the “AR” pattern, however shifted much further north. Only extreme Northern Ca. northward will be affect by heavy precipitation. We will get clipped by another period of warm advection precipitation about Wednesday from the last in the series….No doubt it will be accompanied by high snow levels… Expect lots of cloudiness over the next several days.
The GFS and more recently the ECMWF models are showing the eastern pacific upper high anomaly amplifying and progressing to 140west by the end of this week. That is an inside slider location this time of the year and so expect cold NNW winds to develop with snow showers and much colder weather “About Sunday” a week away….. The GFS thereafter shows retrogression in the long wave. If that verifies, expect a series of short wave trofs that head our way from the Bering Sea. Short wave trofs with over water trajectory along a track on the back side of the long wave, will ensure higher snow to water ratios…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)