The weather over the weekend looks to be mixed with some sun, some light snow….and some Excellent Ski Conditions……The “AR” Drums are beating louder this morning for the West Coast later this month………..
Friday December 14, 2012
Posted at 8:50 am by Howard
Some decent weather this weekend with a great base of snow, set up on Mammoth Mountain…..
The Snow is squeaky and dry this morning…..ego snow as they say…… Expect snow showers possible later today and tonight with a dusting to an inch or so. The next weather system is really moisture that is over running the flat ridge building into our area. Expect some light snowfall Saturday night and especially Sunday and Sunday night. Could be 1 to 3 inches over a 24 hour period. There may not be too much, if any, of a break between snowfall producing systems Sunday and Tuesday with additional light snowfall possibly Monday.
The next significant system for late Monday/Tuesday/Ngt has a “good” subtropical tap so it will begin warmer with snow levels rising to about 7000 feet Monday PM. The freezing level will then be falling to 3000 feet by Tuesday night. As an estimate….It looks to be between a 1 to 2 footer at this time for the upper elevations above 8000 feet by midnight Tuesday. Will fine tune snowfall forecast amounts over the weekend…..
There will be a break Wednesday through at least Thursday. The 12z GFS was slowing the next weather system slowing down until later in the weekend. The Dweebs believe that the models do not have a good handle on the timing of this next storm for the end of next week yet. However, it looks very potent, slow moving and includes “The Possibility” of a tropical connection for the Central West Coast and thus a lot of precipitation..
By the end of next weekend…..the Dweebs have noted that the GFS deterministic run this morning has indicated quite a bit of tropical convection developing SSW of the Hawaiian Islands. Additionally….About Christmas Eve, there seems to be a Kona Storm developing to the NW of Kauai with the entrainment of a lot of Tropical Moisture as well. So Hawaii may be in for a lot of rain over the Holiday!
If the pattern REX’es up along 165W between Christmas and New Years, we will have to keep a weary-eye out for a more significant “AR” event for the west coast. A lot will depend upon if indeed the subtropical system develops, and how it phases with the northern branch with time. At this time, it is unclear what part of the west coast would be effected.