Archive for year 2012

The Town of Mammoth and Mammoth Mountain picks up between 12 to 24 inches of new….Additional lighter accumulations are expected today and tonight…..Weather to Remain Cold through Year’s End….

3:30pm Update

 

The main precipitation portion is now over for the high country with possibly an additional 3 to 6 inches today in town and some 2 to 4 additional tonight. As of 3:30pm Mammoth mountain picked up another 8 inches since 6:00am this morning.

The next system will split as it drops SE into Ca with main precipitation limited to coastal Ca. Nevertheless, some light snow showers possible over the weekend.

Storms will either split off from the westerlies next week, ridge the ridge to the north or plow through the ridge and weaken.  Expect drier then normal weather New Years and forward….

More details later…..

 

4:00pm Update:

Apparently what we have over the next 7 days or so is the long wave ridge setting up between the Eastern Pac and the Great Basin. This is not a pattern that usually produces heavy snowfall here in the eastern sierra unless a closed low or cut off low stalls in the right spot.

We can expect systems splitting off from the westerlies…possibly forming closed lows and bringing rain to the coastal section of California and Baja, Mex or….Storms that actually move through the long wave and weaken as they do bringing light amounts of snowfall.  Sometimes we can get upslope from a cut off over SW Nevada.  The Dweebs will be watching the patterns evolution and giving updates on the progress as such…..

 

The Dweeber…..:-)

Mammoth Mountain gets between 3 to 5 feet storm total Top to Bottom with the Town 2 to 3 feet….more on the way!!!

I’m Dweebin of a White Christmas…..

Just like the ones we had before….

With Mammoth MT in full operation

And its skiers giving ovation

To hear sleigh bells ringing through the snow…..

 

Great Storm!!!! Today Christmas Eve is clean up day…..Loader drivers started early this morning…hoping to get done in time to spend with their families…..

The whole pattern is beginning is shifting east now. A period of dry weather is in store beginning about New Years Day or the Day after….. A large scale trof will develop out over the Central Pacific during the first week of January. This results in long wave ridging and a shift to more of a positive phase PNA (Dry Pattern) the first week of January as well. Meanwhile the Arctic Oscillation is still negative and the over all hemispheric pattern is progressive. This means that for California, the state will have a break for a while. However, the Dweebs see ridging returning over the central pacific by about the 10th of January and wet weather returning as well…..especially going into the 2nd week of January.

In the meantime, we have two more systems to deal with.  One that will bring moderate amounts of snowfall mainly Christmas Day Eve into Wednesday 12:00 Noon (1 to 2 feet over the upper elevations). The Dweebs do not believe that we will have much snowfall Christmas day afternoon). So the Blue Birds will be Churpin eary in the morning, however will fly for cover later in the afternoon. IE. get up early Christmas Day and get out on the slopes!!!

For the Loader drivers, this looks like an early Wednesday morning plow. Between 10 and 20 inches are expected at the Village at Mammoth between Tuesday night and Wednesday PM.

The last in the series is expected the end of this week. It will be fighting “Rising Long Wave Heights” So it will be splitting……

This system is being handled differently by the global models with the latest Deterministic Run the 12Z GFS showing a track a bit closer to the Ca Coast. However the ECMWF, is more off shore with little effect upon the Sierra. In that the trend of the latest two GFS runs has the system closer to the coast…and that the trend it usually the weatherman’s friend…..  The thoughts are that this system may end up bringing us some light snowfall Saturday from a dissipating WX front, before the trof cuts off into a closed upper low off shore……which then redevelops eastward over the Southern San Joaquin valley. Based upon the 12z GFS guidance…this is due to short wave energy in the upper portion of the split diving into the back side redeveloping the cut off over the Bakersfield area, about Sunday night the 30th. This version of the pattern is highlighted by some chilly weather….along with snow showers and periods of some up-slope around the end of the year. Not a big deal from a snowfall perspective either way but we could get several inches of snow and gusty NE winds over the crest along with cold weather the day before and New Years Eve.

There after….a nice break until the end of the first week of January or so.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

Sierra to Get Pounded Again Today with Heavy Snowfall this Afternoon and Night…..Another 2 to 3 feet is expected over the Crest by Midnight Tonight.

Sunday Morning Update….Mammoth Mountain reports a storm total of 2 feet so far with the storms grand finale hitting this afternoon and night……Another 2 to 3 feet possible!

Winds are on the increase again after about 7 hours without much measurable precipitation. SFO Radar showing precipitation increasing again from the west and it will not be long before it reaches Mono County.

Overall…forecast models and Satellite verification shows a deep broad upper low along and off the pacific Northwest coast. This will bring another short wave with heavy snowfall for the Eastern Sierra today and tonight. Strong upper divergence and low level convergence along with a high level of moisture flux between 5000 feet and 10,000 feet will result in another period of heavy snowfall this afternoon and into tonight. Associated with this couplet…..the total precipitable water loop shows another Atmospheric River “AR”, off the California coast that will be drawn into the Sierra ahead of the main trof axis today. PW’s are about an inch…thus a period of heavy snowfall is expected later today and tonight with amounts in the 3 foot range over the Sierra Crest and local amounts in the 18 to 24 inch range at the Village at Mammoth over the next 12 hours…..(The heaviest snowfall period will be between 10:00am and 10:00pm tonight)

Outlook for Christmas Day:

Contrary to earlier thinking the next weather system is moving quicker than earlier expectations. Light snowfall will develop again by Tuesday early afternoon and become Moderate to Heavy overnight into Early Wednesday. Although this is not nearly the power house we have working at the moment….this storm will drop another 6 to 12 in town and 1 to 2 feet over the Crest by Late Wednesday.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)