Archive for year 2012

Breezy Weather to Continue through Thursday…..Cold Core upper Low to descend into the Sierra Friday with some light snowfall a good possibility….Amounts of a dusting to a couple of inches likely….

Friday Storm Update:

500mb Temps are projected to be -25 to -27C over central Valley

700mb Temps are expected to be as cool as -7.5C over Mammoth Friday afternoon

that -18.5F at 10,000 feet at 00Z Saturday.   It will be a cool day Friday in town….upper 30s for a high?

20s on Mammoth Mtn. Again a few of inches of snow is certainly possible between Friday morning and

Saturday Noon. Rapidly moderating temps are expected between Saturday pm and Monday….

 

TSRW threat is being down played at this time for the central valley at this time…

 

Tuesday through Thursday:

Periods of gusty winds…a cooling trend  begins Wednesday. Highs today 70,  68 on Wednesday then 62 Thursday and low 40s on Friday. There is a 70% chance of Snow/Showers Friday. A few inches is certainly possible.

A strong short wave approaching the pacific northwest Thursday will really spin up late Thursday night into Friday. By Friday Morning at 5:00am (12z Friday) a 543DM center is expected to form about 50 miles inland from Eureka, Ca while 500mb heights are about 552dm through Mammoth Lakes, while the upper center tracks SE down the Central Valley of Ca….then inland over NV Friday night. The cold core comes right down the coast and as a small 540dm thickness pool is evident near the Bay Area about noon. This should make for some interesting weather over the Central Valley Friday Pm depending upon timing….especially since it is late May.  Cold Core Funnels? or ??? Will check server indices over the coming days….

Looking at this morning new WRF model run….the cold core is tracking a bit further west then yesterday’s run. So better for some light snowfall in the high country Friday. Temps will really chill down Friday with highs forecasted in the low 40s Friday and 20s Friday night. (protect those plants!!)

 

More Later>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

The Dweeber…………….:-)

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Breezy Cooler Weather Will Highlight the Eastern Sierra Later this Week….Possible Snow Showers by Friday and into the Night and Saturday……Then Warmer the 2nd Half of the Holiday Weekend….

It appears today Monday will be the warmest day of the new week, then the upper jet pays a visit the the high country Thursday into Friday toward the holiday weekend. This mornings guidence showed an east-west oriented upper jet coming into the CA/OR boarder. A short wave trof is currently pushing into Oregon St. As it does, the Front Right exit region of the upper jet will breeze things up over Northern and Central Ca this afternoon and evening.  This is a dry system for most of California.

Beyond today Monday….temperatures will slowly cool as the upper jet to the north becomes more NW/SE oriented. By Thursday AM…the nose of a 130knot upper jet begins to shift south into Central California. As it does…. winds will come up Thursday into Thursday night…Clouds will increase as well and cooling will quicken.

By Friday morning,  a cold core upper low swings into CA….then over the Sierra by late morning bringing snow showers to the upper elevations. Showers may continue into the evening with the snow level lowering to about 5-6000 ft Friday night. At this time it does not look to be significant snowfall producer. (A couple of inches max) but temps look some 20 degrees below normal Friday (highs in the low to mid 40s in town) and 30s (upper elevations) with the chance of some light snowfall……………Expect Partly cloudy and gradually warmer weather Saturday, Sunday into Monday……

More on this system later in the week……

Outlook:

First Half of June:

Normal to below normal temps

Normal chances of measurable precipitation

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….. 😯

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Northerly Flow with Little Temperature Change Today….Warmer Over the Weekend….Then Breezy and a Bit Cooler Early next Week…..Possible Storm Lurking Toward the end of the Month….

Sunday PM:

The extended models are pretty much in agreement now with a spring storm over the holiday weekend……

We’ll see how she holds up and fine tune the timing during the upcoming week. There appears to be enough cold air and instabiloty for snowshowers beginning Friday then into Saturday. It also appears to be cold enough for some snowfall here in town.  But beyond that, amounts this far out are in question.   More later…….  It should be fun to see it all come together…..next week….:-)

 

From Friday:

This will be a short one. Upper ridging will build into the state with warmer temps over the weekend. The high temp for Mammoth today will be little changed….but possibly a little cooler.  However, temps will warm into the upper very upper 60s by Saturday and low 70s by Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 20 and low 30s Saturday Am for a little frost in some areas.  Otherwise a very nice weekend for the fisher folks with highs well into the 70s out on Lake Crowley, with calm winds in the AM and no major wind problems in the afternoon.

Early next week will breeze up and cool a bit as a storm tracks to our north. About 5 to 6 degrees of cooling is expected with more wind over the upper elevations. The Dweebs do not expect as strong “down sloping winds” like what occured yesterday in some areas of the Owens Valley. However, it will be quite breezy Tuesday.

Outlook:

There is a pretty significant upper jet just off shore…..should it decide to progress a bit more east later in the week, would breeze things up a bit. This leads the Dweebs up to the next question….

How about the prospects for some snowfall before the end of the month???  The ECMWF is becoming more aggressive with stronger troughing off the west coast, developing later during the holiday…..and especially the following week. We are due for a late spring storm here in the high country, if for no other reason other then the odds…. Waters are continuing to be colder then normal off the west coast because of the -PDO and tends to support troughing.  Warmer waters are located a bit west of the Dateline. This SSTA pattern still supports west coast troughing…..because of the -PDO.  So the immediate coastal sections of Ca will again….”Not have a hotter then normal summer”!!!

There is a strong negative SSTA anomaly in the Bering Sea and to the south, a positive SSTA anomalie. So will there be a strong upper jet emitting from that area??

Will update on Monday……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

 

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.