The Cold is Here and Likely to Stay through Monday….However…Resort Levels to be Much Milder by Mid-Week
Friday January 11, 2013
Posted at 9:21 am by Howard
Some Snowshowers expected on and off this weekend…….
It was 0F here at MammothWeather.com at the 8200 foot level at 6:00AM and the upper ridge was still amping northward at 140W with the promise of yet another surge of even colder modified Arctic Air into the region tonight. Within the upper flow are several Vort centers that are traveling mostly North to South over California. Although each one can produce some snow shower activity, there is little in the way of moisture to work with.
Again the coldest air is in tonight by 10:00pm with the NAM’s 700mb temps going from -16C today to -18C at 06Z Saturday. Thereafter well stay about -15C for Saturday, then warm to -10C Sunday afternoon. The Town of Mammoth will experience lows from (-2F to -10F).
By Monday the ridge begins to shift east and we warm to about -7C at 700mb. IE (10,000ft). So high temps in town will be in the upper teens today through Saturday then warm to the low 20s on Sunday and mid 20s on Monday.
With the ridge building into California…700 temps go to 0C by Tuesday evening and warm further through Wednesday Night. By early Wednesday AM 700 temps will be +3C, so a serious inversion sets up Tuesday through Wednesday. Snow covered valleys will shiver in the -15F to -25F and the Mono Lake Fog will be back with vengeance.
This pattern is beautiful for Mammoth Lakes. It is highlighted with sunny skies, calm winds and milder temperatures. Within Mammoths Banana belt, at and above 8000ft, temperatures may get into the 40’s or low 50s? RFC data this AM shows the freezing level going as high as 12,000 by Wednesday night before coming down Thursday.
Longer range pattern:
According to this mornings 12z GFS deterministic run, there will be a system that will try to undercut the upper ridge developing later next week. At this time, the guidance suggests that the ridge wins out and the pattern remains stagnant well into the following week. Thus high temps will range in the 30s and 40s and lows mostly in the 20s. However, if Long and Bridgeport Valley’s remain snow covered, temps will shiver more often than not in those areas and the Mono Lake Fog will be prevalent as well.
The next chance of a storm seems unlikely before the last week of January. However, ski and boarding conditions will remain epic with 10 to 12 feet of packed powder conditions likely for quite a while!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)