Will the next storm bring some 3 to 6 inches or will it be another 12+ inch Blunder?……Models back peddling again on amounts for the Thursday-Friday Storm…
Tuesday February 5, 2013
Posted at 5:34 am by Howard
The next storm……Deja Vu?
A lot depends upon how this storm comes in. We already know from several events this winter…..about the large lake effect when it comes to an upper low and its circulation over the ocean that will pick up moisture and bring a foot or better here in the high country. We have had several of these weak QPFed systems that have dumped a foot or more when the forecast indicated, “just a few inches expected”…. So here comes another. The models are between .25 to .60 at most over the crest at the moment for the Thursday-Friday storm. We always seem to do better than that on Mammoth MT. Latest snowfall forecast is for 4 to 7 inches on Mammoth Mt…lets see how that works out by Saturday Am….
Still looks encouraging for Winter Part II:
From the CPC;
MJO associated convection would favor, on average, a continuation of a ridge-trough pattern across the U.S. from west to east. This is currently at odds with the forecast extended range model guidance for the first part of February. However. A strong southern stream typical during the upcoming phases of the MJO is generally indicated in model guidance. If the MJO remains active, the dominant player for anomalous tropical convection and enhanced convection once again organizes across the Indian Ocean;
Chances become elevated for a mean trough along the “west coast and ridging across the east” beginning in late February.
This would favor above (below) normal temperatures across the eastern (western) U.S. and a more active pattern with elevated precipitation for the west coast.
The reference to (a strong southern stream is a wet pattern for the central west coast) The timing on that is sooner than the referenced west coast Trof set up. So if that occurs…..it would most likely be between the (15th and the 20th of February). The set up of the west coast trof is likely during the last week of February into the 1st week of March.