Moderate Winter Storm in Process…..forecast for 12 to 18 inches still looks good…..Platinum Powder Alert for Mammoth Mtn Reiterated for Wednesday Morning….
Tuesday February 19, 2013
Posted at 8:38 am by Howard
Yes its snowing!! Snowfall ratios will be in the order of 15:1 or greater with this storm so the powder will be light and dry!……Not much to add to previous forecast other then Central Nevada area mountains will get a lot of snow…like 1 to 2 feet!
The snowfall forecast for elevations between the Village at Mammoth and Canyon lodge can expect 4 to 8 inches today and another 4 to 8 inches tonight….
Mammoth mountain can expect up to 18 inches by Wednesday AM.
The pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend as a series of impulses within the upper flow initiate snow showers and gusty winds. Next Saturday looks to be the next best chance for snowfall with some 3 to 6 inches possible over the upper elevations…..
Temperatures will remain a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal…..
Week 1 and 2 outlook (MJO)
The Current position of the MJO is in phase 4….IE the Maritime Continent. It is of moderate strength. Although the forecast for the MJO is for weakening the next week….the CPC suggested that other subseason effects would be temporary and that the MJO would remain active for the next several weeks as it moves eventually into the Western Pacific. (CPC)….”The bias-corrected ensemble GFS forecasts a continued MJO signal over the next two weeks, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime continent over the period. There is a hesitation in eastward propagation during Week-2, however. This is most likely other tropical subseasonal variability impacting the forecast at this time and is most likely temporary. SEE: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html
In it current position, it favors an active pattern over the west with below normal temps and precipitation for at least the next week…..once it gets beyond 140E expect rising long wave heights over the PNA region.