Archive for February, 2013

Inside Slider Brought a dusting last night…..Upper jet to shift east through Tomorrow with Sierra Crest Winds Diminishing Rapidly Tuesday….Another dry week ahead….MJO both on the move Again and Strengthing…..Expected to move out over Indian Ocean this Week Heralding a Flip in the PNA….

Quick Update:

 

Gusty NE winds to continue over the crest today diminishing tomorrow….Expect a slow warming trend…..with low to mid 30s today…..Upper 30s to low 40s Tuesday and 40s Wednesday and Thursday….with highs in the low 50s by Saturday…..Night time lows will range in the single digits tonight then moderate into the teens and 20s by Mid week.  It looks to be a Dry Week ahead.

Although the Global Models have not caught on quite yet…… The MJO now over Africa is on the move and has strengthened the past 2 days.  If it continues as forecasted eastward this week…..it should be far enough over the Indian Ocean for the Global models to catch up to the upcoming retrogression expected, and the flip in the PNA for the Far west.  That would initiate short wave action for the west coast again……………   Stay Tuned……

 

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

Mammoth Mt reports 3 to 6 inches storm total……Cold Upper low over the Desert Southwest will slowly exit over the weekend leaving cold temps and gusty upper elevation winds….Milder weather is expected by Mid-Week….

Upper pattern shows a cold closed low pressure system along the UT/AZ boarder shifting east. By this afternoon the upper center will be just north of four-corners.  In its wake, a strong northerly flow will continue over Eastern Ca with strong gusty Sierra Crest winds and below normal temps. There is even a small short wave that will come south over Mammoth today. There may be a few flurries associated with it during the afternoon/evening. No measurable precipitation is expected.

Northerly flow aloft will continue all weekend with daytime highs in the 20s in town and teens on Mammoth Mt. Nights will be quite cold in the single digits. There will be Northerly breezes in town and strong north winds over the ridges today and Sunday.  The extended outlook progresses the upper ridge closer to the west coast the 2nd half of the new week. This will ensure fair weather with seasonal temps Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend looks fair and mild with the next possible small weather maker the following week.

 

Long Range:

Latest inter-seasonal outlook (beyond 2 weeks) still shows a major pattern change the end of the month of February into March initiated by the MJO.  Currently the MJO has been stationary for the past week in phase 1. It did weaken somewhat with the area of convection lessening. The forecast is for the MJO to become moderate again and move eastward over the Indian ocean over the next 10 days. Until it begins to move again, the timing to the change in the hemispheric pattern will be static.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

 

Small Storm to move into the Sierra Late Thursday….light amounts expected with 2 to 6 inches in the Forecast for the Town and 6 to 8 inches over the higher elevations Thursday Night through Friday Night…Still Waiting on the MJO….Moderate Confidence that it will enter the Western Indian Ocean 2nd half of February with West Coast Long Wave Trof set up as well by end of month…………

Friday Morning Update: 8:43AM

A cold upper Low has formed a “closed center” over the Central San Joaquin Valley this morning.  Light snowfall is currently occurring in Mammoth at the moment. However, the main upper jet energy remains both to the West and south of us. Strongest vertical motion is moving inland over Southern California with current Satellite showing a cluster of open cellular cu droping SE along the Central Ca coast. Numerous showers are occurring over the most southern portions of the southern sierra and mountains of Kern Co where most of the focus will be for California today.

As of 7:00am….Mammoth Mt reported 2 inches of new at the Main Lodge so far…with the Dweebs estimating 3 inches over the crest. An additional 2 to 4 inches at the main Lodge is expected today and possibly inch tonight…..for a storm total of 5 to 7 inches by Saturday morning. In town, about an inch has fallen. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected today between the 7500 foot level and the 8500 foot level.  The storm will also bring very cold temperatures for February standards with highs in the low to mid 20s the next few days in town, while upper elevations are expected to be in the low to mid teens.  Moderate gusty winds will blow mainly out of the NNW this weekend….with wind chill factors over the higher elevations.

By Mid Week….the high country will experience a return to a milder weather pattern, as another upper ridge builds into the West Coast. The weather looks dry thereafter for about a week…….

With the new storm and snowfall….skiing conditions will remain excellent on Mammoth Mountain with 6+ inches of new over a 9 to 15 foot base by Saturday, setting up the surface of the snowpack nicely for the holidays!

 

The Dweeber……………………………:-)

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

From Thursday:

A closed low off the coast of the pacific northwest will drop southward along the Ca Coast…..then shift into the Great Basin later tonight and into Friday. Without asignifiacat moisture tap, the system will have to rely on it own dynamics. Most deformation and surface convergence will be over north west and central Nevada.  Generally light amounts are expected on Mammoth Mountain by High Sierra Standards….

The Dweebs are expecting between 6 and 8 inches of Snow on Mammoth Mountain, Storm total by Friday Midnight and 2 to 6 inches in town.

The weather front that will move into our area early this evening will bring much colder temperatures and gusty winds.  Highs temps at the village at Mammoth will be confined to the low 20s Friday with gusty NW breezes. Highs over the weekend and including Monday in the Town will be in the upper 20s while lows will be in the single digits. Upper elevation highs will be in the low to mid teens while night time lows are expected below zero.  So plan on dressing warmly for your outdoor activities this weekend and keep face protection handy…..

 

The next storm will be about a week away….models are hinting at retrogression in the 8 to 14 day period…..that would go along with the MJO forecast of the MJO moving into the Indian Ocean.  Ther Dweebs expect a flip in the current +(PNA pattern) by the end of the month of February or sooner…..

 

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

From Wednesday:

A fairly chilly short wave is headed toward the Sierra Tomorrow. Thickness’s lower below 528DM by Friday morning as the coldest air slides south down the San Joaquin Valley. Freezing levels follow suite down to 3500 feet, mid morning Friday.   This is still considered a light precip producer. (.33) for Yosemite;  SWE ratios are higher in the chilly air and amounts could fluff out as high as 8 to 10 inches over elevations above 10K. Forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches at 8,000 feet.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens on Mammoth Mtn and 20s in town. Thereafter…..a slow recovery in temps will occur in town early next week.

 

CPC UPDATE ON THE MJO: 2/5/2013

Uncertainty increases in Week-2, (Week after next) but we favor an evolution where the MJO enhanced phase enters the western Indian Ocean and above-median rainfall is favored, albeit only with moderate confidence, for southeast Africa, across Madagascar into the central IO. Tropical cyclogenesis remains favored in the
south-central *IO due to support from dynamical models, even though it is at odds with MJO composites. Elevated chances for below-median rainfall shift slightly
east in Week-2 associated with the MJO eastward propgation and span an area from the central MC, northern Australia into the western Pacific.

Enhanced convection across the southwest Pacific continues to add uncertainty to mid-latitude impacts from this MJO, but it appears that the enhanced convection in this area may begin to decrease by Week-2. For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, the development of a mean trough across the western U.S. near or just after mid-February suggesting elevated chances for below normal temperatures across parts of the western U.S..

As we approach the end of February, the MJO would favor on average, troughing near or along the west coast and a tendency
toward a mean ridge across the eastern U.S., favoring elevated chances for above-normal temperatures for portions of the east central U.S. and a more
active weather pattern for the western U.S. with enhanced chances for above-median precipitation.

*IO = Indian Ocean

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)