Archive for February, 2013

Will the next storm bring some 3 to 6 inches or will it be another 12+ inch Blunder?……Models back peddling again on amounts for the Thursday-Friday Storm…

The next storm……Deja Vu?

A lot depends upon how this storm comes in.  We already know from several events this winter…..about the large lake effect when it comes to an upper low and its circulation over the ocean that will pick up moisture and bring a foot or better here in the high country.  We have had several of these weak QPFed systems that have dumped a foot or more when the forecast indicated, “just a few inches expected”….  So here comes another. The models are between .25 to .60 at most over the crest at the moment for the Thursday-Friday storm.  We always seem to do better than that on Mammoth MT. Latest snowfall forecast is for 4 to 7 inches on Mammoth Mt…lets see how that works out by Saturday Am….

MJO Update:

Still looks encouraging for Winter Part II:

From the CPC;

MJO associated convection would favor, on average, a continuation of a ridge-trough pattern across the U.S. from west to east. This is currently at odds with the forecast extended range model guidance for the first part of February. However. A strong southern stream typical during the upcoming phases of the MJO is generally indicated in model guidance. If the MJO remains active, the dominant player for anomalous tropical convection and enhanced convection once again organizes across the Indian Ocean;

Chances become elevated for a mean trough along the “west coast and ridging across the east” beginning in late  February.

This would favor above (below) normal temperatures across the eastern (western) U.S. and a more active pattern with elevated precipitation for the west coast.

Comment:

The reference to (a strong southern stream is a wet pattern for the central west coast) The timing on that is sooner than the referenced west coast Trof set up. So if that occurs…..it would most likely be between the (15th and the 20th of February).  The set up of the west coast trof is likely during the last week of February into the 1st week of March.

The Dweeber………………………….:-)

 

 

 

 

Upper Ridge over the far west will flatten by mid week to allow moderate snow producer into the high country…otherwise pattern to continue dry.

Monday morning update shows QPF on the rise with the Thursday system…..ECMWF has better over water trajectory and orographics. System capable of a foot+ now over higher terrain. Timing to begin Wednesday evening. This appears to be a one shot system with a period of showery weather behind the front. Temps to be a lot colder going into the weekend.,,,,,,

Brief update to say that next system mid week is fairly limited on moisture at this point. Will take another look at it Tuesday AM. Still good for 2 to 6 inches if orographics are decent. Otherwise little change in the weather through Tuesday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Expect partly cloudy skies….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

Upper Ridge to Continue its Hold over the West….Light Breezes over the Upper Elevations….Next Snow Producer about a Week Away…….

The Resort Levels at 8000 ft of the Eastern Sierra will continue to be fair for the next 5 days with highs 45 to 50 and lows in the 20-25 at 8000 ft. The Ridge Trof Pattern is a Stable one, however will begin to shift east a bit by Mid week.

Latest timing for change is a week away as the big eastern trof shifts out over the Atlantic enough to allow a storm moving through the Gulf ofd AK to deepen along the west coast for some snowfall around the 7th or 8th of February.  This does not look to be a big storm. However it may dump a foot or better.

I guess “Ollie” the west coast Marmot will most definetly see his shadow Saturday at Sunrise…so bring on the 6 more weeks of Winter!  Actually the Dweebs feel that last 1/3 of Winter, IE March could be quite the wet month if the MJO takes up residence in Phase 1 of the Rimm chart the end of the month.

In the meantime, here is the latest from the CPC in their long range outlook for Feb 6th through the 12th:

For Week-2, below median rainfall is favored across the MC and parts of the western Pacific associated with the eastward movement of the MJO. Drier-than
average conditions are also favored for Hawaii consistent with MJO composites and the CFS rainfall forecasts. Enhanced convection is expected to develop late
during the Week-2 period across the western IO associated with the MJO and likely atmospheric Kelvin wave activity that often leads the MJO convective
envelope. The large scale environment, as indicated by model guidance, appears favorable for tropical development across the southwest IO also during this
period but confidence is lower.

As a result of the multiple areas of anomalous tropical convection, predictability is lowered and the uncertainty has increased for much of February as compared to earlier in the month of January. MJO associated convection would favor, on average, a continuation of a ridge-trough pattern across the U.S. from west to east. This is currently at odds with the forecast extended range model guidance for the first part of February, however. A strong southern stream typical during the upcoming phases of the MJO is generally indicated in model guidance. If the MJO remains active, the dominant player for anomalous tropical convection and enhanced convection once again organizes across the Indian Ocean, chances become elevated for a mean trough along the west coast and ridging across the east beginning in late February. This would favor above (below) normal temperatures across the eastern (western) U.S. and a more active pattern with elevated precipitation for the west coast.