More Snow Expected Next Week……However Less Than Earlier Expected…….More Updates Next Week…….
Friday March 15, 2013
Posted at 5:50 pm by Howard
Sunday PM Update:
Models have come in a little wetter this afternoon with the EC generating up to an inch over the crest. I think that is good for the crest. This is for the period Tuesday through Thursday AM. The GFS is a bit dryer. However, it too is a bit wetter then last nights run. The subtropical system has already occluded and is cut off about 1000mi west of the central coast wine country. The system will combine off shore with a system coming out of the Gulf of AK…..but seems to dampen before moving inland producing a weakening front. Thus the lift will be mostly from orographics which will be decent and because of PWs of up to 3/4 of an inch the potential for 10 inches over the crest seem like a good bet now. SWE Ratios will be low….6 or 7:1 at the main lodge and 8 or 9:1 over the crest. There will be a lot of shadowing east of the crest so like the last system snowfall amounts will be unimpressive in town.
CNRFC has freezing levels over Yosemite Tuesday night over 9800 ft, and through Wednesday around 9500. If the atmosphere is saturated and isothermal, snow levels could fall into town. This is a big if through. Otherwise this will be a rain/snow event for the town…. Best guess an inch or two of slush.
Another update Monday…………………………………….>>>>>
Saturday Night Update:
Latest modeling is splitting the Wednesday system pretty badly. This is not going well as only light amounts now expected….
Will update Sunday….
Next weather system will be still running into the head winds of the mean ridge position. The wavelength resulting form the ongoing Greenland block will cause quite a bit of splitting. The system looses a lot of its punch and the models both the GFS and the EC are less in agreement now. Usually when you get closer to an event the models come together. In that they are deviating….Not a good sign. Nevertheless, we will get enough snow to freshen up the base. If you biting down on the EC… the European has backed off a bit now on the QPF. Although it is still painting about 1.25 over the Mammoth portion of the Sierra next week. The GFS has much less. Still have time to watch it though. The Dweebs will update again Monday.
For those that wonder why I have not updated as frequently in the past three weeks. My computer was hit with a nasty virus. I hope to be back up only more frequently next week. If I find out who it was…I will give their address out so you may have your way with them. 😉
Some Rumor’s about a big storm at the end of the Month. Just RUMORS……..>>>>> Will take a good long look ahead next week……>>>>