Archive for April, 2013

Eastern Pacific Upper Ridge Now in Control…….Warming Trend through Sunday……Dry through next Wednesday with some afternoon Build-Ups Midweek…….

Quick Update Friday:

Weak NW slider short wave to kick up a little wind “Over the Crest” late this afternoon into Saturday AM. Then light breezes Saturday afternoon.

CRFC information shows the freezing level going up to near 13,000 this weekend and holding above 12,000 through much of next week. Thus spring thaw will be in progress beginning late this weekend with little change next week. Winds will remain light for the next 5 days and high temps at 8000 feet will move into the 60s by Saturday and remain there for the next 5 to 7 days. Nighttime lows will be coldest over the lower valleys next week with a weak inversion setting up by Sunday. As mentioned yesterday….there is a weak cut off low approaching the Southern Ca coast mid week.  This little feature will help to generate afternoon cumulus clouds of the summertime verity. If the pattern lasts a couple of days the air-mass may get modified enough for some diurnal isolated showers. Best day would be Thursday for this.

Although low temps have been in the teens and 20s as of late. As subsidence increases with the upper ridge core building in later next week….early morning lows will move above freezing for many areas with the coldest morning temps below 8000 feet. So expect lows in the 30s beginning Sunday morning at the village then on throughout next week.

At this time…….the Fishing Opener looks great, weather wise!!!

 

Let the runoff begin!!…………………..>>>

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Checking the progress of the pattern change to fair weather…Everything is on track. The upper high at 500mb has pushed the N/S gradient well to the east as the storm that plagued our area with wind, light snow and cold is now focused over the eastern portions of the Midwest, south and into the SE CONUS.

Big story over the far west will be greatly diminished winds the next 24 hours and the warming temps into the weekend. There is a short wave coming over the top of the ridge which axis is still off shore at this time. The short wave will bring some high clouds Friday afternoon and night. At the same time, winds will increase during the mid afternoon Friday on Mammoth Mtn then into the night. Gusts to 50 MPH can be expected later Friday afternoon and night over the crest. Winds will rapidly diminish later Saturday Morning over the higher elevations. Lower elevations will just have some breezes.  Through the weekend, temps will rise into the 60s in town and skiing will once again return to Spring type conditions.

Early next week as the off shore upper ridge bodily moves into Ca, height rises will force the upper jet even further to the north. In fact, the core of 130knot upper jet at 300mb is forecasted to be way up in Northern Alberta! At the same time, a closed “anti-cyclone” in the upper ridges core, develops over Central NV.

There is a little feature or small upper cut off low that follows underneath the upper ridge from the pacific that is just off the Southern Ca coast Wednesday. The combination of warm temps, high April Sun Angle and pockets of surface convergence or Upper divergence may kick off the first of Springs air mass afternoon TSRWs Wednesday and Thursday PM a full week away as air mass modification begins for the year 2013!

Overall, the weather looks marvelous this weekend & well into next week.

Next Update….This weekend……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

Stay Tunes

Clearing Skies beginning this morning will continue into the afternoon….and one more cold night expected…then Sun is king through weeks end and beyond…..

Wednesday AM update:

Storm Total was 1 to 3 inches in town and 4 to 5 inches on Mammoth Mtn….pretty much as expected.

Today’s weather is highlighted by the continuation of northerly flow aloft. So winds will continue over the ridges up to 60MPH. Light breezes in town. High temperatures will remain cold today (upper 30s), but not as cold as yesterday. As far as moisture goes…..this mornings 12z WRF showed the 50% RH isopleth at 700mb hanging in there through the morning then pulling east with the upper trof, as it moves into the Rockies by this evening. So complete clearing is expected during this afternoon.

Although another cold night is expected tonight, more of the cold will be enhanced because of radiational cooling, due to the clear skies tonight as opposed to any additional cool air advection.  By Tomorrow Thursday, heights aloft will build into our region for a nice warm up into Friday. Although benign, a weak NW slider will kick up wind over the upper elevations Saturday as it heads Southeast.  Afterwords…..according to the ECMWF, the long wave ridge over the East Central Pacific moves into California for an extended period.   This feature will bring above normal temperatures next week…possibly lasting through the fishing opener.

 

Here is your current temperature forecast for Mammoth (7800′) for planning purposes….

………………………………………………………………………………………………Some PM Build-Ups

PTCLDY   SUNNY    SUNNY    SUNNY    SUNNY        M-SUNNY   M- SUNNY

Wed        Thur          Fri           Sat         Sun                   Mon             Tue

/40         21/52       28/59      31/62       32/64              33/64          33/62

 

Long Range Fishing Opener Outlook  (As of today Wed the 17th)

Fair and Warm………>>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

 

Cold will Hold until Wednesday….Then Fair Weather with a Warming Trend Through the Weekend…..

Tuesday Update:

About 2 inches is the storm total so far.  Currently….upslope conditions prevail with gusty NE flow over the crest. There could be another inch today over the upper elevations.  The strong winds that gusted 50+ in the town yesterday will be much lighter today. However the upper mountain will experience a continuation of moderate to strong winds….but mainly just over the crest.  Cold weather is now the highlight today and tonight with highs near freezing at 8000 ft and lows in the mid teens.

An upper high at 500mb begins to build in Wednesday. This will herald a warm up. Temperatures that are a good 20 degrees below normal today will rise to 10 degrees above normal by Saturday/Sunday with highs in the low 60s.   Lows this weekend may not get down to freezing in the Banana Belt of Mammoth. (8K to 9K’)

Longer Range:

As highlighted yesterday the Dweebs are still expecting a dry remainder of the month of April. That also means that the fishing opening has a better than 50-50 chance now of being fair and warm!

We still have May and June to get through. No doubt that there will be more unsettled weather.  Climatology says that the last freeze in Mammoth is usually Fathers day in June!

 

Bye For Now…………………>>>>>

 

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)