Archive for May, 2013
Late Spring Heat Wave to send High Temps up into the upper 70s in Mammoth…..Then cut off upper low may allow some Summer like Showers to develop toward Tuesday then into Thursday….A bit of cooling is expect by the following weekend and into the following week
Friday May 31, 2013
Posted at 10:42 am by Howard
Yes…..Its going to be toasty this weekend! Highs in the Mid to Upper 70s Saturday and Sunday in Mammoth and Mid 90s in the High Deserts. The ECMWF tells the screaming message that the last chilly system has moved though and although the GFS has some cooling for the following week after the 9th, the cooling will only be associated with temps back down into the 60s….not 50s.
Isolated to Widely Scattered High based thunderstorms will likely occur over the Southern Central Sierra and Southern Sierra Mid week next week. The upper off shore cut off gets the boot SE by the following weekend, when temps may cool down a bit in the high country due to a trof passing well to the north. However, between now and then it’s early Summer Weather here in the High Sierra! Highs climbing well into 70s and lows in the 40s at resort levels.
Climate Teleconnections show the Eastern Pacific Oscillation in the negative phase. That is usually associated with above normal heights over the southern half of the Far west. Coastal sections north of Pt. conception will be battling the extra Cold Pacific Waters of the -PDO and a stronger marine layer once the onshore flow really gets going. Inland areas will be extra hot this weekend with 100s in the Central Valley.
Thus, Tis the time to be a high country dweller……………..:-)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
More Light Rain in Mammoth This Morning…..And a beautiful Double Rainbow at Sunrise……Get ready for some Toasty Weather this weekend then some Summer Like Convection by Mid Week Next Week
Wednesday May 29, 2013
Posted at 9:40 am by Howard
As of 9:30am the moisture band was all but gone leaving partly cloudy skies. The snow level was mostly above 11,000 feet. That should be the end of it….
The upper jet lifts north tonight ensuring a warm dry weekend. Thereafter, about Sunday night another short wave will move into the pacific northwest with the tail end splitting off to the southwest to form a cut off low off the South Central coast. This cut off spins up Tuesday into Wednesday for some afternoon convection. IE isolated TSRWs
It will be very warm this weekend with mid 70s in Mammoth and mid 90 in Bishop. Longer range models doing a lot of Yo-Yoing…..Will try not to do the same and wait out the next few days before looking down the road.
Showers To End This Morning with Partly Cloudy Skies today and Wednesday…..Improving and Warmer Weather Expected Thursday into the Weekend…….MJO shifting into Phase 3 May bring a return to cooler and possibly wet weather Week 2…..
Tuesday May 28, 2013
Posted at 9:38 am by Howard
Nice little system freshens up the air and dampens the forests and wildflowers…..
Skies were becoming partly cloudy this morning as the remaining deeper moisture moved off to the SE. Total precipitation was .21 hundreds for the system bringing the monthly total of .44 inches of water for the month of May, here at Mammothweather.com. A dusting of snow, possibly a few inches occurred at elevations above 10,000 feet. For the next few days we will be under the effects of an anti-cyclonically curved upper jet. As a 130knot portion comes inland along the Northern Ca/Oregon border Wednesday morning, it will be locally windy across the Eastern Sierra Wednesday morning as the front RT exit region buffets our area. The NW/SE axis is always a windy or breezy position for the upper jet, over Northern Ca. Our 5 day WX pattern is in transition, as the upper jet takes a hike to the north Thursday into Friday. Be ready for a warm beautiful weekend that will begin Friday with day time high in the low 70s!
Medium and Longer Range:
Yes……Just when the Dweebs were ready to hang this Winter up, another active MJO is expected to develop into Phase 2 then move through Phase 3. This puts more organized tropical convection well into the Eastern Indian Ocean then Maritime Continent. So where are the Dweebs going with his all? A few discussions back I touted the idea that winter was over and that the remaining last gasp was at hand. I am not so sure about that this morning. So although the Eastern Sierra will experience warmer and improving weather beginning Thursday, and that above normal temps will be the rule beginning Friday into the weekend.
According to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble System (EMON), the MJO will be making an incursion into Phase 3 after next weekend. So what you say! Now look at the composites for temperatures in June with respect to the Phase of the MJO.
Now look the significance for the same time frame for Phase 3.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/MJJ/combined_image.png for precipitation. And more importantly the “Significance” is showing a nice bull’s-eye of red over us. That’s pretty high in our neck of the woods! So Summertime weather may have to wait a few more weeks to kick in after this weekend.