Temperatures to trend slowly toward more seasonal norms the next week to 10 days as a series of weak trofs effect the central west coast
Monday May 13, 2013
Posted at 3:07 pm by Howard
Tuesday Morning Update:
Latest guidance points to a Vort max that has recently moved on shore just south of Monterrey Bay at 15Z. You can see the dark area of that Vort center plainly on shore in the water vapor loop. Although the timing of the dynamic forcing will not be perfect as the dynamic lift for the Sierra will come too early for the diurnal heating…..there will nevertheless be some buildups and some Thunder/RWs over Eastern Ca. No cooling is expected now from this system. A stronger trof will move into our region Thursday, bringing about 8 degrees of cooling along with gusty SW breezes during the PM hours. A few showers are possible Thursday Evening.
A NW flow aloft with higher heights at 500MB will finish off the weekend promoting high temps back into the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday and Monday. The next note worthy weather system will develop the 2nd half of next week. It is a colder trof bringing the chance of showers. Stay tuned on that one. A long wave trof may develop and hang around for quite a while there after.
Its springtime in the Sierra!….and the Maps show it!
If you think that it has been warmer then normal the past several days…you are correct. Seasonal highs at the 8000 foot level should be more in the low 60s this time of the year while lows are expected in the low 30s. The past week, mammoth experienced highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s. With the positive height anomaly shifting to the east, a slow cool down will take place the next few days along with an increase of afternoon breeze. However, with all said, highs will still average some 5 to 8 degrees above normal until stronger trofing develops later next week. Daytime Highs may then return to the low 60s or possibly lower.
North American height anomalies in the 6 to 10 day outlook show positive height anomalies over North Central Canada and Southern Ca with lower heights north of AK and the pacific NW. The polar vortex is set up north of AK. So a split in the westerly’s and a southern branch will develop off the west coast pushing marine air into the coastal areas beginning Thursday. The longer range shows even lower height anomalies later next week. All in all its still spring. The Dweebs would not be surprised to see another dusting over the higher elevations by the following weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)