Archive for June, 2013
Record Heat for Eastern California Through Tuesday…..Heat Wave may now linger longer next week but not as hot second half….Airmass Modifacation Type High Country Thunderstorm break-out likely Tuesday through Thursday…..
Saturday June 29, 2013
Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
Quick Update Sunday AM:
Temps hit 89 in Mammoth Saturday…a record…
Today is the day to hit 90 degrees! The old records was 83 set back in 2002.
Thunderstorms will increase a bit today over the sierra but may be less Monday.
Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday into Thursday…
This current heat wave will likely be the most intense of the Summer with subsequent heat waves not as prolonged.
We are expecting 80 degree plus temps most of this week, unless we get into good TSRW pattern……..
Sun Mon Tue WED THUR Fri Sat
PTCLDY MOCLDY TSTRMS TSTRMS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY
/89 55/88 60/88 56/87 55/84 51/82 50/81
/20 20/20 20/40 40/30 30/30 30/20 20/20
It was 70 degrees in Mammoth Saturday morning at 8:45AM!!!!
The Dweebs took a look at both the 00z GFS…06Z GFS and the 12Z run of the EC. All are trending toward prolonging the heat wave the second half of next week. Although it should not be as hot as it is now or will be through this Tuesday. It is possible that Bishop high temperatures will remain at or above 100 now through the end of this week. The big day for the Owens Valley will be Sunday with the high temperatures expected to reach 110, and dependent upon cloud cover…..near 90 in Mammoth Lakes.
Next Update Tuesday Morning. At that time the Dweebs will take a good look at the July Fourth Holiday as far as thunderstorm possibilities and temps. Stay Cool and be happy you live in the high country!
Quick Update Friday Evening:
Strong thunderstorms developed in the Reno Area late this afternoon and to the north of Reno. Hail up to an inch was reported.
The high temperature in Mammoth hit 85 degrees at the village and an estimated 87 in town. It reached 107 in Bishop for a record setting day. The high temperature forecast for Bishop Saturday is 108 and 110 on Sunday then 108 both Monday and Tuesday…all records. The 110 on Sunday if reached will tie the all time record for any day of the year set back on the 10th of July 2002.
MJO: The phase space is interesting in that NCEPs model is stuck in phase space 1 contrary to the ECMWF progressive scenario phase’s 1, 2 then 3. Usually the ECMWF is better in the longer range.
In that NCEPs GFS model is stuck phase 1, the new 00z GFS Saturday 500mb run “may be beginning” to reflect that as it is hanging on to the heat wave longer later next week but not as hot as it is forecasted through Tuesday. As although, the ridge weakens considerably on the 4th and 5th….it begins strengthening again early the following week. If it turns out that the GFS is correct, Bishop may only have a 3 or 4 days of upper 90s Saturday and Sunday and possibly Monday before high temps begin on the upswing again….well into the 100s. I will take a look at the EC and the 006z run in the morning to see if there is some agreement on the change. So far, no real SE flow develops in the medium range although there has to be an increase in instability by mid week as the top comes off. This is pretty interesting from my stand point of view.
Another interesting point is that that same current MJO phase space location in November, December and January as compared to June, July, August brings the possibility of record cold…..interesting conundrum.
Heat is on across Eastern California and Nevada with Record High Temperatures expected this weekend into early next week…Heat Wave to begin breaking down by Mid Week
Thursday June 27, 2013
Posted at 9:33 am by Howard
The weather charts this morning had no problem pumping 500mb heights over Mammoth to 594DM by 1600UTC. This is just the beginning as heights will Climb to the high 590s and 500-1000mb thicknesses into the mid to upper 580s by early next week. Any high temperatures records in Mammoth will be dependent upon how rapid air-mass modification occurs over the next 5 days. At the moment the peak in the heat is expected Sunday and Monday in general. However, for the high country, many times it is earlier as air mass modification results in high based thunderstorms that will tend to begin in the late afternoon…then occur earlier each day until Thunderstorms begin as early as late morning. During that scenario, daytime highs would be reached in the morning prior to the usual 1:00 to 2:00pm time frame at resort level’s. This results in a stunted daytime high.
So yes….a 90 degree high is certainly possible in Mammoth this weekend. However, temps may be more in the mid to upper 80s then cooling to the 70s as the week goes on next week if the TSRWS get cranking earlier. By Wednesday, the upper high gets stretched north so much that is literally pulls apart and a weakness develops off the Central coast. This would increase divergence over the Sierra for a good old- fashion thunderstorm pattern Wednesday and Thursday, especially if any southeast flow develops. This may compete a little with the Man made fireworks for the holiday.
Stay Cool, stay hydrated, and remember not to leave anything with a hart in a car the next 7 days. Hyperthermia is a killer!
Moisture Fetch now lifting north with Some Sunshine expected today….Warming trend to kick into high gear Wednesday with upper 80s expected by Sunday in Mammoth…Heat wave may last 7 to 10 days…..High based thunderstorms a good possibility next week….
Tuesday June 25, 2013
Posted at 10:02 am by Howard
Moisture band still effecting the high country of the Central Sierra. Light rain fell Monday with amounts .12 to .15 recorded from RAWS sites around town. Checking SFO Radar, most of the shower activity is Sonora Pass north at the moment. Although there are still some showers to the west of Mammoth and out over the Valley. The latest guidance shows the upper jet along the CA/OR border today…then lifting NE toward Washington state and Canada Wednesday into Thursday.
Strong rapid height rises are expected at 500MB over the far west next 24 hours including Mono County. This mornings 12Z WRF shows the 588DM height line pushing north of Mammoth tomorrow morning about 8:00am. So although high temperatures will again be difficult to forecast today because of Cloud Cover, with the projected height rises, the moisture band should gradually move north today as well. So some sunshine is possible today and thus high temps will likely get into the 60s this afternoon.
The Dweebs did some MJO work and noted that for the months of June, July and August, when the MJO projects into the Wheeler Phase Space 1 and 2, hot weather can be expected for California. I think that the ECMWF Ensembles have a better handle on this, as it holds on to the heat longer. If the EMON is correct in its projection, we can expect very warm weather to develop as progged by both the GFS and EC beginning this Thursday. However, the EC 00z Tuesday continues the anomalous heat longer through the 360-Hours. The GFS on the other hand weakens the upper ridge too quickly after the 3rd of July. There is better support for the upper ridge to remain longer as the MJO remains in phase space 2 through about the 8th or 9th of July. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_full.gif
Thereafter the EMON tracks the MJO into phase space 3 which is cooler then normal for California. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JJA/combined_image.png
Thus the GFS may be much too quick in breaking down the upper ridge over the west. The EMON is suggesting that the heat will not break until about the 9th of July! For our high country, should this heat wave develop as planned, no doubt that eventually, air mass modification will give Mammoth a nice break with afternoon and evening thunderstorms while the Owens Valley Bakes into the 2nd week of July.
With the upper high again forecasted to be closer to California, record or near records are possible. Here are your record highs for the Owens Valley next week.
Sunday the 30th, 108; Monday 105; Tuesday 105; Wednesday 107; Thursday 107; Friday 108.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)