More Showers and Isolated Thunder in the Forecast the next few days…..Focus has shifted West of the Crest…….Then Very Hot weekend shaping up with high temperature records in jeopardy…..Windy, Cooler weather to return by Midweek W/Cooling trend into following weekend…..
Tuesday June 4, 2013
Posted at 9:10 am by Howard
Wednesday AM Update:
Once again showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred in Mammoth. Although Thunder was not heard, the Dweebs picked up .02 in the rain tip bucket.
No change is expected in the forecast today. The 500MB upper low located about 700 miles west of TJ, MX will continue to provide an upper divergence lower level convergence couplet for more isolated Showers and Thunder today and Thursday. Further Warming aloft on Friday should “Cap” the convection for just some afternoon clouds both Friday and Saturday. Heights and 850mb temps peak Saturday with record highs expected. The latest high temperature forecast for the USFS and Visitor Center for Saturday is 86……Some 18 degrees above normal.
Below is a clip of today’s almanac:
From Yesterdays discussion:
Some pretty good Echo’s have developed Just on the west side of the crest. The Thermal trof looks like it is shifting east a bit so we may get some showers later this afternoon…..
Most of the action is located between Tioga and Sonora from the Crest, westward. There is some red in the echo’s and so some heavy rain and lighting is probably occurring in that cell.
As of 9:00AM Tuesday:
Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms rattled across the Sierra Late Yesterday afternoon and evening. A repeat is expected today with an exception. Since the upper cut off is drifting more west the focus will be more over the west side of the Sierra effecting areas like Yosemite and the resort levels like Mammoth and June rather than areas east of Highway 395. Looking at this mornings Guidance, Kinematics show the deformation axis, west of the crest. Surface pressure fields (“thermal trof”) has shifted west. Strongest CAPE is 500 Jewels per kg that is centered SW of Mammoth. The best differential divergence between 850mb and 250MB (Couplet) is SE of the gold country near highway 50. So the main message today is that Showers and Thunder will be focused west of the Sierra Crest. However, resort areas like Mammoth and June may still have showers and Thunder as we are close enough to the focus today. Odds and POPS are much less east of Highways 395. Will update Wednesday AM.
The hottest day of this weekend is expected Saturday now and not Sunday. Mammoth may hit 87 degrees with Bishop 105. These are record highs for many days in July…let alone early June.
The heat along with the current upper ridge pattern will shift east next week with afternoon wind on the increase beginning Tuesday with a cooling trend through the following weekend. It may be especially windy Wednesday and Thursday. High temps will fall a good 20 to 25 degrees next week. Lows will return to the 30s with upper 20s not out of the question for some areas. So far the pattern change is a dry one.