Record Heat for Eastern California Through Tuesday…..Heat Wave may now linger longer next week but not as hot second half….Airmass Modifacation Type High Country Thunderstorm break-out likely Tuesday through Thursday…..
Saturday June 29, 2013
Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
Quick Update Sunday AM:
Temps hit 89 in Mammoth Saturday…a record…
Today is the day to hit 90 degrees! The old records was 83 set back in 2002.
Thunderstorms will increase a bit today over the sierra but may be less Monday.
Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday into Thursday…
This current heat wave will likely be the most intense of the Summer with subsequent heat waves not as prolonged.
We are expecting 80 degree plus temps most of this week, unless we get into good TSRW pattern……..
Sun Mon Tue WED THUR Fri Sat
PTCLDY MOCLDY TSTRMS TSTRMS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY
/89 55/88 60/88 56/87 55/84 51/82 50/81
/20 20/20 20/40 40/30 30/30 30/20 20/20
It was 70 degrees in Mammoth Saturday morning at 8:45AM!!!!
The Dweebs took a look at both the 00z GFS…06Z GFS and the 12Z run of the EC. All are trending toward prolonging the heat wave the second half of next week. Although it should not be as hot as it is now or will be through this Tuesday. It is possible that Bishop high temperatures will remain at or above 100 now through the end of this week. The big day for the Owens Valley will be Sunday with the high temperatures expected to reach 110, and dependent upon cloud cover…..near 90 in Mammoth Lakes.
Next Update Tuesday Morning. At that time the Dweebs will take a good look at the July Fourth Holiday as far as thunderstorm possibilities and temps. Stay Cool and be happy you live in the high country!
Quick Update Friday Evening:
Strong thunderstorms developed in the Reno Area late this afternoon and to the north of Reno. Hail up to an inch was reported.
The high temperature in Mammoth hit 85 degrees at the village and an estimated 87 in town. It reached 107 in Bishop for a record setting day. The high temperature forecast for Bishop Saturday is 108 and 110 on Sunday then 108 both Monday and Tuesday…all records. The 110 on Sunday if reached will tie the all time record for any day of the year set back on the 10th of July 2002.
MJO: The phase space is interesting in that NCEPs model is stuck in phase space 1 contrary to the ECMWF progressive scenario phase’s 1, 2 then 3. Usually the ECMWF is better in the longer range.
In that NCEPs GFS model is stuck phase 1, the new 00z GFS Saturday 500mb run “may be beginning” to reflect that as it is hanging on to the heat wave longer later next week but not as hot as it is forecasted through Tuesday. As although, the ridge weakens considerably on the 4th and 5th….it begins strengthening again early the following week. If it turns out that the GFS is correct, Bishop may only have a 3 or 4 days of upper 90s Saturday and Sunday and possibly Monday before high temps begin on the upswing again….well into the 100s. I will take a look at the EC and the 006z run in the morning to see if there is some agreement on the change. So far, no real SE flow develops in the medium range although there has to be an increase in instability by mid week as the top comes off. This is pretty interesting from my stand point of view.
Another interesting point is that that same current MJO phase space location in November, December and January as compared to June, July, August brings the possibility of record cold…..interesting conundrum.