Archive for June, 2013

A few cool…breezy….cloudy days with a few showers, then the heat is on later this week!

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Monday AM UPDATE:

Just a quick update…..The band of moisture currently headed into the Sierra still has the potential to bring some light rain or sprinkles today. The Dweebs are not expecting a lot but enough to possibly dampen the ground. The most notable change to the forecast is that temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than forecasted today.  Highs will only get into the 50s today…some 20 degrees below normal.  Night time lows will remain above freezing but into the upper 30s/low 40s.  Feels a little like fall!  Expect periods of gusty winds up to 35 MPH with ridge tope gusts to 60MPH.  It will be another cool day on Tuesday. However not as cool as today….expect highs in the 60s. Some scattered showers are certainly possible Tuesday.  Wednesdays weather is still looking good with highs in the 70s. Very warm weather is expected over the weekend with highs in the 80s.  The only other adjustment to the forecast is that most of the modeling is keeping the upper high east enough for very warm temps…..however, no records if the trend continues. There are more then enough ensemble members keeping the upper high between the 4 corners states and Southern NV. Vegas may break some records but Bishop may be just plain hot without record heat.  The location and strength of the upper subtropical continental high is what the Dweebs will be most focused on the next 5 days along with the possibility of Thunderstorms next week. More later this week on the developing heat wave and its effects upon the Eastern Serra. Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Changable Weather Pattern over the Next Week with some light rain possible Monday/Night then very warm second half of Next Week

Sunday AM Update:

Increasing clouds are expected today with gusty SW breezes this afternoon and evening to 30 MPH.  The first of 3 surges of moisture is now into Northern California. This will be mostly high clouds for our local high country. No precipitation is expected in Mammoth today. Expect highs a little cooler today in the upper 60s.

The 2nd surge will move into our area mid to late morning Monday. That appears to be the best surge associated with the best Upper Jet support. The jet axis is more like Eureka, Ca….SE through Tahoe with Mammoth to the South. This means that Mammoth is on the southern fringe of the storm track.  Nevertheless, we may get a .10 of an inch or so of rain. The freezing level is at 12,500 Monday…..well above all high elevation mountain passes. Monday noon through Monday night looks to be the best chance of some light rain in Mammoth…….Great for the Motocross Track!  The upper jet lifts north Tuesday, so any shower activity will be mostly in the Morning…

The further outlook still looks very warm.   A continental upper high builds NW from out of Old Mexico. High temps in Mammoth will climb well into the 80s by Friday and stay there through the Fourth of July and possibly through that following weekend.  I will update later on any Thunderstorm pattern that may follow…..as these type of heat waves normally are followed by a good TSRW breakout when the heights begin to fall. In the meantime, enjoy the comfortable weather that you are experiencing as it will be uncomfortable next weekend through much of the following week. Bishop could still see high temps hitting 100 by this Wednesday, 105 to 106 next weekend and if heights get close to the Magic 600Dm with 500dm-1000dm thick in the low 590s as forecasted by the new 18Z GFS today….high temps may be in the 107 to 108 range early that following week.  Either way…you folks in the Owens Valley need to make sure your Swamp Coolers are maintained and operational……Later this up coming week through the Forth of July!!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

 

 

 

While today Friday looks pretty nice for the 1st day of Summer, there will be one last precip producing weather system from the Gulf of AK that may bring measurable precipitation to the Eastern Sierra, Sunday into Monday. Any Gulf of AK storm that brings precipitation to our area this late in June is unusual….but not unprecedented. This one is no exception as it has quite the moisture tap as it drags moisture from north of the Hawaiian islands into our area mainly Monday.  By Tuesday it moves out with improving weather expected by the afternoon.

The Next big change in the pattern occurs about the middle of next week as the long wave trof off the pacific NW retrogrades and a strong Continental High establishes itself over the Great Basin and into intermountain west by next weekend. This is our warmest pattern here in the high country. And,  being that it is occurring in late June, it is not likely to be accompanied by any Major Monsoon Flow to cool us off much.  It is possible that Mammoth could hit 90 degrees by the end of next weekend with Bishop 105 to 110…depending upon exactly where the upper high sets up. The looks to be a protracted warm spell with highs of 100 beginning about next Thursday and continuing through the forth of July….  No doubt there will be Thunderstorms associated with this pattern on the back end>>>>>

More later on the high country heat wave that is ahead for us for later next week…..

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Breezy to Windy this Afternoon as Upper Trof Pushes East Through the Pacific NW….Warmer more Tranqual WX this Weekend..Then signifacant warm up next week…..

Winds were ramping up over the upper elevations this morning as the latest upper trof moves through the pacific NW. Blocking over Alaska has had the effect of suppressing the upper jet south of its normal position, over Northern California. Thus it will be windy this afternoon and evening and cooler Wednesday. In that Mammoth is located in the upper jets front RT quad, no precip is expected. In fact it will be drier then normal. Dew points were in the single digits this AM and with the anticipated wind, the National WX service has hoisted Red Flag warnings for critical fire conditions today and this evening….  High temperatures will cool to the low to mid 60s by Wednesday. Night time lows in the lower 30s.

500mb heights will recover about 100 meters by the weekend and so a nice warm 1st week of Summer is expected with highs in the mid 70 for Mammoth while Low temps will move up into the 40s.

 

Longer Range:

Next week looks warm; 70s then 80s….

This is the last Week of Spring as the Summer Solstice arrives Thursday the 20th at 10:04pm

Meteorologically speaking…..if the new June the 18th 12z GFSX verifies…..the continental upper high will set up over 4 corners (desert south- west) next week about mid week next week. All heads will then make the shift to the south as Monsoon Season begins over the Desert Southwest. It appears like a weak surge of moisture begins to trek north into Southern Arizona from Old MX next week. At the same time, a little SE flow may begin to move into Southern Ca by weeks end……………..it’s time!

 

The Dweeber………………………..:-)