Near Record Highs Expected the Next Few Days before Airmass Modifacation Increases Moisture and Rain Possibilities Later in the Weekend and into early next week…Drier More Comfortable Weather to Return by Midweek Next Week….
Thursday July 18, 2013
Posted at 9:25 am by Howard
The high temperature reached 83 in Mammoth Wednesday as heights increased once again over the far west leading one to believe that that the Summer of 2013 is looking to be quite the warmer then normal Summer. With that said, Thunderstorms so far have not been that all impressive right here in Mammoth thus far. That may be ready to change as an increase in Monsoonal moisture in combination with air mass modification this weekend will provide the juicing for some rainfall, beginning Saturday then more likely Sunday into Monday.
The Weather maps this morning were highlighted by high pressure aloft over Nevada bringing on the heat with an inverted trof over northern MEX and (easterly wave aloft) centered near the MEX/NEW MEX/AZ border tracking westward. This should help the flow turn more easterly for an influx of moisture and eventually some spokes of dynamics into Southern Ca and possibly up into the Southern Sierra as well. Thunderstorms will spread westward into Southern California deserts Later Friday and into Saturday. The European model is being favored through Monday showing a weakening upper high later in the weekend and the aforementioned inverted surface trof shifting into Southern California. SSTS are running into the high 80s in the Northern Gulf of Ca. A Gulf Surge associated with this Inverted surface feature is certainly possible. The Southern Ca deserts as well as Southern NV could really get walloped with some heavy rain and flash flooding in some areas by the end of the weekend or early next week. It will feel very humid along the coastal sections of Southern Ca Sunday into Tuesday as PWATR moves north of 1.5 inches.
At this time…..most of the dynamics and moisture is expected to remain to the south of Mammoth Lakes. However, high elevated heat source air mass modification is expected…..and as PWATs increase from South to North, no doubt there will be some rainfall by Sunday. Monday may be wet as well if the air mass does not get over developed to early.
At the moment, Sunday afternoon and evening looks to be the best bet for Thunderstorms for the Weekend. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s this weekend and lows in the 50s.
The longer range show a drier SW flow by Mid week along with some cooling…..
Next update nearly next week……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)