Mid Level Southerly Flow Allowing Smoke to continue moving NNE away from Southern Mono County….Some increase in Moisture today may kick off a few convective TSRWs today and Wednesday but no real forcing in the mix…..Holiday Weekend will be nice first half then Breezy Sunday into Monday….
Tuesday August 27, 2013
Posted at 10:01 am by Howard
Thursday AM Update in Rim Fire:
|Estimated Containment Date||Friday September 20th, 2013 approx. 12:00 AM|
Rim Fire is 20% contained….179,481 acres burned as of this morning…..Future fire growth potential is extreme.
A slight westward expansion of the continental upper high has spread some warmth in the mid levels and has created stronger inversions for the next couple of days. This means that areas down stream from the fire will have more concentrated smoke. Areas like northern Mono County and especially Coleville and Topaz are under a dense smoke advisory. It’s probably a good idea for elderly folks with respiratory issues to find some cleaner air else ware. Southern Mono County Air in areas like Mammoth and June Lake is pretty clean these days.
Upper flow at 500mb is SW, However upper flow at 700MB is South…thus mid-level moisture is allowed to move north today and bring a slight chance (20%) of TSRWs to the Mono County area. Deeper moisture is to the east of us and areas like the Owens Valley and south will have a greater chance of rainfall (50%). The outlook is for little change in the pattern until the weekend when a storm pushes east through the pacific NW increasing the winds from the West. That system is Fall like with a 558 thickness pool. No doubt that some snows will fall in the Washington Cascades. As far as Mammoth goes, there will be an increase of wind Sunday PM from the west then a dry front following with NW flow behind it. This may for the “first time” any significant RIM Fire smoke or haze gets into the Mammoth or June Lakes area later Sunday PM and or Monday behind the front.
Longer Range Stuff:
CFS still suggests main High Latitude blocking over Western Canada and AK, with Hudson Bay Low east of its normal position. This would make sense in the westerly phase of the QBO. An undercutting jet into west coast during the colder half of the year and less blocking in the east may be the trick, thereby allowing the cold up in eastern Canada to keep flushing out off the Atlantic, western phase QBO style. This is should result in a more progressive pattern for the far west. There is a bias toward the Pacific NW being a bit drier then usual, an indication of possibly the warmer phase of ENSO later in the winter? This would add up to a much wetter winter for California. The cold the Almanac is touting is not over the far west. However, some of that may back up over the west from time to time early in the Winter or late fall if correct.