Archive for August, 2013

Warming Trend this weekend along with Lighter Breezes by Sunday….Dry Weather Expected through the Middle of Next Week….Perseids Flying High Sunday Night…Then the CFS 1st peak of the Upcoming Winter…

 

Friday AM:

Another 2 breezy days ahead then a weaker Zephyr and Warmer Temps. Mammoth should enjoy another 5 to 7 days without precipitation. Aspen Fire is 85% contained…..Next week looking excellent for back county travel……Highs returning to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows now in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Don’t forget the Perseids Meteor Shower late this weekend into Monday. Best viewing after midnight and toward the NE. 

And now a peak of the latest Climate Forecast Systems long-range outlook for precipitation for the Winter of 2013/2014.  Looking better all the time…..

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Sea.html

 

The Dweeber…………………………………:-)

 

Troughing off shore and a developing southerly flow will highlight our weather with a few thunderstorms this week along with gusty winds at times….Expect Temps to be Near or Slightly Below Normal

 

Thursday AM Update:

No surprises this morning.  A dry southwest flow associated with an upper low off the Northern CA coast will continue here in Southern Mono County. There is some moisture moving north along the NV/CA border but feel that Mammoth will not have much chance of thunderstorms unlike more northern and eastern portions for the Mono County. 

With so much sheer in the Mammoth area, storms may form well east of highways 395, the Northern Whites and over the more northern portion of the county this afternoon. For this reason the Mammoth Crest should stay dry.

The main effect of the upper low off the Northern CA coast will be cooling which began yesterday and breezy weather on and off the next few days.  Highs in Mammoth will be in the upper 60s today and Friday. By early Friday and Saturday morning, wide-spread upper 30s may result.  Highs Saturday-Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s.  The Aspen Fire is now 80% contained so expect smoke and haze to continue diminishing over the next several days.

Outlook for next week:

Height rises from the Texas will work slowly westward into Southern California with much warmer weather returning to the Mammoth. Again expect a return to seasonal temps in the mid 70s by Monday to possibly upper 70s by midweek. At the moment, the warm-up is not associated with any influx of moisture or unstable air. So a dry pattern is expected next week, although the higher temps no doubt will initiate some high based Cu which will occur over the higher elevated heat sources.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-) 

 

From Last Weekend:

Latest 12Z guidance shows a continuation of toughing along the west coast. The off shore Trof is expected to be negative tilt and so will be good for channeling up moisture in a southerly flow in the mid and upper levels. Although no deep moisture is expected, the southerly flow will be accompanied by a few vort centers and so a little later in the week, dynamic forcing looks possible when the upper low comes into CA. This adds up to a chance of TSRWS in the Central Sierra mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Any thunderstorm’s should be mostly diurnal in nature and as they would be high based, and could have strong outflows along with gusty winds.  High temps will remain in the upper 70s for the next few days then cool to the low 70s by Thursday and Friday. The Dweebs are expecting a dry clear following weekend with temps in the mid 70s and lows in the 40s. It looks great for the annual Persieds Meteor Shower next Sunday night! Hopefully the smoke will be all gone by then!

Longer range still shows a mostly dry southwest flow aloft and trofing along the west coast through much of August. The Climatic Forecast System is looking at a warmer then normal September as well.  There may be one last burst of Monsoon moisture in the Sierra about the 3rd week of August.  Summer is definitely on the wane in the high country temperature wise, however,  lots of nice warm Summer days are expected ahead……

Comments…

It is actually good to see more trofing in August as often times trofing in the Summer portends a wetter winter to follow. This is just one of many little signal’s that the Dweebs have taken notice of in the past….to think about for the future Winter….

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

Quite Weather Pattern To Continue this Next Next week with a few Isolated Thunderstorms possible….. Wednesday through Friday……..

Aspen Fire Sunday Evening Update”

 

Current Situation

Total Personnel 1,828
Size 20,252 acres
Percent Contained 70%
Estimated Containment Date Saturday August 10th, 2013 approx. 12:00 AM
Fuels Involved Timber with mixed chaparral
Fire Behavior Fire continued to be active throughout the north and east sides of the fire. Temperature is increasing and humidity decreasing.

 

Longer Range: 

First half of August will be Normal to below normal in temps and drier then normal

Second half of August will be Normal to above Normal in Temps and there is the possibility of that a period of Monsoon moisture will invade the sierra about the middle of the month of shortly thereafter.

Climate:

September is expected to be warmer then normal with normal to above normal Precip. (Dying Tropical Storm to effect Ca?)

ENSO:

Some Climatic Models for the winter of 2013/14 trending toward weak El Nino Conditions for California. (+.5C)

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)