Typhoon Man Yi Constructively Phases with Westerlies…..Amplifacation Down Stream this week Increases the odds of stronger Fall Trof Effecting Central and Northern California Next Weekend
Monday September 16, 2013
Posted at 7:39 am by Howard
Monday afternoon update:
ECMWF is stronger with upper Trof for Friday night and Saturday….GFS is beginning to trend deeper…….light Snow in Mammoth Lakes????
After today….say good-by to the Summer 70’s as a series of Gulf of AK trofs migrate through the west coast bringing shots of cooling along with gusty winds. Although currently active…..the AZ Monsoon will wind down this week as well. High temperatures will cool to the 60s Tuesday with 30s beginning for many areas by mid week….even some 20s possible diurnally for wind protected areas below the inversion.
Now for the fun stuff!
The Autumnal equinox arrives as 1:44pm next Sunday the 22nd. The 1st trof, strong enough to bring precipitation to the Mammoth Area, around the Equinox, the Dweebs consider’s the Equinox storm. This is folklore of course like the Farmers Almanac not Meteorology…….But in Climatology there may be some supporting stats on that. As Jan Null, retired Lead forecaster for WSFO SFO says….Climate if what you expect…weather is what you get.
With a wave train of short waves already taking aim on the west coast…it’s time to look upstream to the western pacific to see if there is anything that might cause extra amplification that may support any global model differences. Low and behold we have a Typhoon Man YI that has recently recurved to the NNW and is now over Japan. Is this what the ecmwf has latched on to….To increase the amplitude over the American GFS Model. A few more days will tell in comparing the two global models. I think that the EC is right because it is better at long-range modeling.
The ECMWF paints between .25 and .50 of precip in our local Mts Saturday and Saturday Night. Light Snowfall is a possibility as well.
The Next few days will tell if the GFS comes into agreement and the EC stays consistent. Additionally, the Western Pacific is becoming more active and so I would expect several more systems with strong upper jets through months end. Now with this said, western pacific energy may not always phase beneficially for precipitation for the central west coast, so it is on a case by case basis.
The information above may be useful if you are planning a trip to the back country this week as the current forecast is a mostly fair one at this time with just a slight chance of showers Saturday and night. It looks to be windy at any event for Friday night and much cooler with highs in the upper 50s Saturday in Mammoth Lakes. The Dweebs believe that there will be snow in the back country and possibly Mammoth as well! So plan on stuffing some thermals in your lederhosen….Friday night and Saturday for Oktoberfest.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)