Upper Trof to push thorugh last day of Summer bringing the Mammoth Crest its 1st Dusting………First Fall Trough Wednesday may be inslide slider with colder air to follow…..Gusty north winds for the Bishop Area…..
Thursday September 19, 2013
Posted at 9:10 am by Howard
Saturday PM Update:
Rainfall amounts exceeded expectations with .61 at 8200 feet. There is also a good dusting here as well.
The Dweebs believe that there is at least 3 to 6 inches of fresh snowfall over Mammoth Mt.
The storm is over now with just a few isolated lingering showers….
It will get cold tonight!
Update in the am
Saturday AM Update:
An upper Trof of low pressure and its associated cold front is still expected to dig far enough south to bring UVM to the Mammoth area. There is an area of 70% RH at 700mb that moves through the Mammoth area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. This will bring the best chance for rain showers in town and some light snowfall over elevations generally above 9000 feet. Amounts will range from 1 to 3 inches with the best amounts over or near the sierra crest at elevations above 10,000 feet. It will be windy today and this evening with the passage of the cold front. Highs today will be in the upper 50s while over night lows will range from 25 to 29 degrees by Sunrise Sunday.
Today is the last full day of Summer…….The Autumn equinox occurs at 1:44pm Sunday….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)
The 18Z GFS has come in wetter than this morning. Updated snowfall amounts would suggest 2 to 4 inches on Mammoth Mt with an inch possible in the Village Saturday evening.
Update in the Morning…………………….>>>>
Friday AM Update:
Global Models are in agreement this morning in digging the upper jet (110 knots) further south across Mono County Saturday instead of Northern Ca. Although the bulk of precip will favor the Northern Sierra from Tahoe Northward…….Mammoth now has the chance of a dusting at elevations above mainly 9000 feet….Saturday PM. Winds will now be stronger Saturday and it will be cooler Saturday with highs in the 50s and early morning lows Sunday morning may get down to the mid 20s. California rivers forecast center paints up to .16 over the Yosemite area by 06z Sunday. the freezing level drops to about 9,000 feet by 06z Sunday. Moderation in temps will occur Monday and Tuesday before an even colder system dives from the NNW into the great basin Wednesday. That system should be drier but colder.
Stay tuned to Mammoth s best weather with updates each morning now…….
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………………………:-)
Color is coming on quickly across the Eastern Sierra and looks to peak a bit early this year. The peak is usually 2nd week of October. This year…..?? Summer will go out on a cool note with daytime highs in the 50s Saturday and over night temps Saturday night into Sunday AM in the upper 20s possible. Fall arrives this year on Sunday the 22nd at 1:44pm.
The weather the next 24 hours will be tranquil as weak high pressure aloft gives us a pleasant day. The next fall like Trof approaches Friday afternoon and winds will pick up all day. Friday evenings winds will be moderate with gusts SSW to 45 MPH. It will be quite breezy as the cold front approaches Saturday afternoon. Showers and snow showers in the higher back country a possibly. At this time no measurable precipitation is expected throughout Southern Mono County. The highlights for the weekend will be below normal temps with lows possible into the upper 20s early Sunday AM.
Upper pattern remains progressive into early next week with the 1st Fall Trof an inside slider. The models are portraying it with stronger thickness falls over Mono County…..otherwise it will be moisture starved with some light upslope snow showers possible. Will keep an eye out for any accumulation potential. At this time it is unlikely.
For the Owens Valley, this could be your 1st moderate shot of north wind on Wednesday.
Although the 2nd half of the Month of September looks to be unsettled with cooler than normal temps and the possibility of some showers….as we go from the first week of October through the middle of that month the climate models are chatting about warmer Indian Summer weather ahead. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20130918.NAsfcT.gif
As the North American Continent continues to cool off…the pacific ocean begins to play a more important part in our weather as that becomes the heat source. There is anomalous warm water between Hawaii and the West Coast. Between 60N and 20N with the axis about 130W to 135W. Should an upper high set up east of there, the prospects for October would tend to be quite warm and dry most of the month. Therefor the prospects for good snowfall in October are not encouraging……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..