Archive for September, 2013

Some Thunder in the forecast the next few days….Then warmer for the weekend…..Next cool down comes later next week with fall-like Trofs effecting Mainly the Pac NW…….Cooler weather 2nd half of next week.

Wednesday AM:

 

Upper low over Nevada now with counter-clockwise flow at 700mb back washing some moisture into the Eastern Sierra over the next few days. Yesterday there looked to be a storm over the Yosemite valley. For those that want an update on the Rim fire, here is a link to a good blog that will help:  http://northcasmoke.blogspot.com/

High temps the next few days may be a bit cooler, just because of the added moisture and cloud cover with highs closer to 70 in Mammoth Lakes. Lows in the 40s.

The outlook finally shows the upper low moving east by Friday night so that the weekend is clear and dry of moisture. High temps will rise again into the weekend back into the mid 70s with lows in the 40s.

Longer Range:

There appears to be major changes to the larger scale features over both the eastern pacific and far west that will put an end to…the persistent hose of monsoon moisture moving out of Mexico and effecting the desert southwest about the middle of next week. The first series of Fall like Trof’s that have been advertised for over a week now by both the Climate Forecast System and GFX would begin to move into the great basin about Tuesday or Wednesday. This may be a bit fast but it is significant change and about time. The Climo is favorable for a series of Trof’s to begin their march in the Pacific NW about the 3rd to 4th week of September.  The GFS advertises for the Central Sierra,  thickness cooling, gradient, stronger winds and cloudiness, all from the Gulf of Alaska…… and snows for the Cascades!

 

 

We finally got rid of the haze this morning as the gradient was not strong enough yesterday. Stronger NNE flow took care of that.  This mornings 12z NAM showed a weak upper low over NW Arizona that will wobble NW into NV and remain there for a day or so. The upper flow has been quite moist to the east of the low. Apparently, some wraparound will affect the sierra the next few days and so the chance of some showers or thunder may occur from some interesting directions.  Over all there is a slight chance as the AZ monsoon season comes to a close this month here in the Central Sierra.

High temperatures have been in the mid 70s in Mammoth and with the drier air of late, the longer nights have contributed to some good radiational cooling with temps well down into the 30s and 40s.

 

Weekend Outlook:

 

It will be gorgeous!   high tempos will make a run for the upper 70s where in the Owens Valley possibly near 100. By the way….. the latest 100 hundred ever recorded in Bishop was in 1971 on the 14 of September. You may tie that record, or if it happens Sunday or Monday break it by it occurring a day or two later. As I am saying….there is a chance!

 

Longer Range:

The Dweebs see quite the trof on the horizon later next week!!!   Cooling…gusty winds….????

Stay Tuned…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Clean Air Returns to Mammoth Lakes……At Least for a while….Still some isolated showers possible this week………Overall, very nice weather here…..Some Aspens turning yellow gives a hint of Fall……

Saturday 11:30am

Computer Issues the past week…

Will update soon….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Labor Day Update 5:30PM

With the expected wind increase yesterday…..clearing came to the skies of Old Woolly as expected.  Afternoon clouds and a few light showers dotted the skies mainly to our east.

Eastern California continues to be inbetween a Trof in the Pacific NW and an upper high over Colorado. A moist Monsoon flow will continue to effect mainly Nevada and extreme Eastern Ca. Our local Sierra seems to have just enough SSW flow to keep the smoke to our north and showers mainly to our east. However for the record, the Sierra is still expecting a chance of showers or Thunder the next two days..  The upper low will begin to shift east Wednesday putting Mammoth a bit closer to the Rt Rear entry of the upper jet for some extra Divergence aloft and that may make for a better chance of the showers Wednesday PM. Thereafter, Thursday and into the weekend is of concern as far as the possibility of smoke returning to our area from the Rim Fire.

Much drier air and a more stable air mass is expected to move over our region Thursday. Although the main effect of the upper low will be a stronger and drier Southwest flow with winds gusting to 35+ MPH.  Conditions may be favorable for increased fire activity from the weather conditions headed our way.

As the winds increase Thursday, they will begin to back to the west during the day. That is a better trajectory for the return of smoke to Southern Mono County. Then there is always the possibility that if there is some cooling with the system to our north, a northerly drainage wind my develop during the late night and into the morning.  This very well may bring a return to smoky conditions to Southern Mono County again like last weekend.  The fire is 60% contained. Lets hope containment continues on a rapid pace.

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

RIM FIRE INFORMATION

Update #28

Release for Monday, September 2, 2013/Time: 6:30 AM

Incident Statics

Acres Burned: 228,670 (357 square miles) Structures Threatened: 4,500

Containment: 60% Residences Destroyed: 11

Fire Start Date: August 17, 2013 Commercial Property Destroyed: 3

Fire Cause: Under Investigation Outbuildings Destroyed: 97

Cost to date: $66 million Injuries: 5

Total Personnel 4,616

Fire Update

Line construction combined with burning operations continued overnight where safe conditions and accessibility allowed on the east and southeast flanks of the fire. There has been good progress made on the spot fires occurring near Pilot Peak and along the southern perimeter. Fire activity continues to be active in the south and southeast with moderate rates of spread and torching. Today winds will be coming from the south southwest with up to 20mph gusts. Fire activity has been slow and moderate in the north end of the fire. Today’s fire weather is extreme. Very active fire and extensive spotting continues to hamper suppression efforts and pose risks to firefighters. Air resources continue to be utilized in assistance with spot fires, slowing fire advancement, and control lines in advance of the fire spread.