Outstanding Fall Weather today…..Aspens Coming on Strong Now with Lots of Color to Come……Warmer then normal today with highs well into the Upper 60s….Then get ready for a Big Cool Down Thursday into Friday……Weather to stay Dry…..
Tuesday October 1, 2013
Posted at 9:09 am by Howard
Wednesday AM Update:
Breezes will pick up today and temperatures will be slightly cooler… low 60s…..
Moderate Winds will increase later tonight into Thursday With high temps in Mammoth cooling some 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow over today. .
It will be warmer over the weekend…..the extended shows another trof early next week so the warm up may not last that long. However confidence in the longer range now is not that great….
Lows Friday and Saturday mornings in the mid 20s….
It’s October now and looking ahead the Dweebs see some very nice Fall Days. Some will be rather chilly and some will be warmer than normal. October is the biggest month for change. Not necessary for active weather here in the high country but because of “the effects” of the transition from continental heating to the heat source of the Pacific Ocean. Over the past 4 weeks the Dweebs have noted the intensification of the westerly’s, due primarily to the longer nights in the Arctic.
Western Pacific action has picked up with Typhoon action playing havoc with global models. The latest MJO update today shows the MJO remaining strong in Phase Space 6 which means that the Enhanced/Suppressed portion of the MJO is in the Western Pacific. This also means the possibility of more big storms in the Pacific NW with destructive phasing……or central west coast Trofing if a tropical storm constructively phases with the westerly’s over the Western Pac. Like some spring months…..Model verification is the worst in the month of October. So if you are planning on taking a long back pack trip and the weatherman says fair for a week, be prepared for the worst!
Again with the MJO in Phase Space 6, the western pacific looks to be active with typhoon action. So although the official word is for dry weather the next two weeks, the weather in the high country may change. Stay tuned to this Blog as the Dweebs will be paying close attention to the western pacific………
On a side note, check out the latest on the Sun Spot Cycle #24. The Suns is really in a funk. A real solar hibernation is under way which solar scientists probably do not fully understand. There appears to be a correlation between the Sunspot Cycle and Weather. Lots of studies under way. As….This is the first time that modern science will have the opportunity to study our Star going through a solar hibernation. (The absence or the lack of significant sunspot activity). SEE: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots Also See: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Back to Weather…..
The massive storm in the pacific northwest will wind down over the next two days. A strong short wave ridge currently north of Hawaii will progress to the west coast by this weekend. As it approaches 140W, a chunk of cold air drives into Washington State tomorrow and then slides SE into the Great Basin. This will increase upper elevation winds 1st Wednesday afternoon/night, then surface gradients will increase as well from NNE to SSW. Cooling will begin to move into the high country Wednesday PM and intensify Thursday into Friday. The cooling will occur over land so the air mass with remain dry. Highs temperatures Thursday & Friday could be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Mammoth Lakes. Thus Highs will be some 10+ below normal.
Looking back out of the pacific, the upper ridge at 140W Wednesday then progress to the west coast by Sunday. Thus a warm up is expected over the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs will climb into the low 60s then mid and possibly upper 60s by Sunday/Monday as 500 MB heights climb to 588DM along the central coast Sunday.
The 12z GFSX has a split flow developing later next week with the possibility of a cutoff low forming off the Southern Ca Coast then Wobbling north over a few days. This may bring some showers to coastal sections of California later next week. Again this is October and lots can happen!!!! Its a fun month with weatherman experiencing lots of humility during some years………:-)
Wednesday Morning 10-02-13 Comment……..
CFS v2 Showing Wet November now for Ca…….