Chilly Today Warm Tamale…..Upper Ridge with Warm temperatures over the Weekend to Follow Shot of Cold Air Currently Over the High Country…….Cold Inside Slider Looming for Next Week is beginning to dig further west in subsequent model runs……Will have to Keep a Weary eye on this little Bugger!
Friday October 4, 2013
Posted at 9:11 am by Howard
There was some light frost this morning in the Mammoth Slopes area at elevations near 8000 ft and temperatures dropped to the low 20s here near the Village. As mentioned a few days ago, the Aspens are coming on strong now. Color in the high country at the 8000 foot level will peak in the next 6 to 10 days……Depending upon weather. Meaning that any excessive cold snap could turn some black with a hard freeze. Time to plan that Fall trip to Mammoth as this is one of the most peaceful and beautiful times of the year in the Sierra.
Weather wise it will be cooler than normal today with light breezes in town. High temps today will be in the upper 40s at the village with another cold one tonight in the mid 20s. Gusty NE winds will blow today over the crest only.
The weather for the weekend will be a classic warm weekend with warm days and chilly nights. Winds will for the most part will be calm with highs on Saturday in the low 60s than upper 60s on Sunday. The GFS has the upper ridge building in with 500mb Heights in the low 590s Saturday evening and 500mb to 1000mb thicknesses into the mid 570s Sunday afternoon. So Sunday afternoon and Monday AM will produce the warmest temps in the afternoon and early AM. For you painters, Over night lows because of mild inversions will be above freezing Monday Morning at the 8,000. Elevation. Only the coldest valleys will be down to or below freezing.
Outlook Next Week:
Last nights GFS and ECMWF both came into agreement showing a cold inside slider type short wave. The models keep the strongest jet energy just off the coast. So as the system comes in Tuesday, winds will not be a major factor here in the high country. However, as the system digs and shifts SE…..A NNE component develops on the back side of the upper low, creating gusty North Winds for the upper elevations Wednesday/NGT and down through the Owens Valley. It also develops some moisture at 700mb on the systems back side for Wednesday PM. Although, both models have this system as fairly moisture starved by the time it gets here with mainly over land trajectory. The EC, develops its best 700mb moisture Wednesday PM with into Thursday night. It appears that we would be in for some “Upslope” over the Sierra Wednesday afternoon into Thursday Night if the EC is correct. The EC also has Isopleths of QPF as high as .5 near Mammoth in the most favorable areas. So it looks like we “may be” in for some light snow Wednesday into Thursday night with highs in Mammoth in the very low 40s. If the ECMWF’s QPF is correct we could see 3 to 5 inches in the most favorable areas. Stay tuned…..
Friday 3:30PM update:
Newer guidance is showing the upper low digging a bit more west now over the top of us Wednesday afternoon. This does not change the precip forecast but increases the odds of it. In that the GFS is beginning to get more aggressive, any further westward track by another 100s miles or so would be a game changer in the amount of snow that would fall. Will have to keep an eye out on this little bugger……..
Note: This is preliminary as this is the Dweebs first look at this system. Updates will adjust QPF up or down as needed.
Next update Tuesday AM or Sooner…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………….:-)