The last weekend in October to finish off on a warm note with increasing winds Sunday night leading to snowfall by Mid morning Monday……Forecast Models agreeing on a more westerly trek now with Signifacant Accumulations fo the Sierra Monday into Tuesday night…..
Saturday October 26, 2013
Posted at 8:53 am by Howard
Models have come around to the thinking of the ECMWF (European model) that the system will take a more westerly trek with the upper jet enough off shore, allowing the Front Rt exit region to do its magic by providing lift and vorticity over and near the coastal waters of the far eastern pacific. This bodes well for more significant accumulations now for the Sierra with a good 3 to 6 inches possible beginning Monday morning through Tuesday night. The new 12z NAM shows a slowing of the system over California, which if correct would keep the showers going possibly into Wednesday AM over the Southern Sierra. So the Dweebs are predicting 3 to 6 inches over the upper elevations beginning Monday AM through Tuesday night. The snow level will begin about 8500 but lower rapidly Monday to 5000ft.
It is likely that Tioga and Sonora passes will close early Monday AM…so visitors in the eastern sierra plan accordingly….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
Today’s Weather Glossary Term:
ACE Index: Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA. It is a wind energy index that is defined as the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed, in knots, measured every 6 hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm strength. The ACE index is combined with the seasonal total number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes to categorize a hurricane season as being above normal, near normal, or below normal. The 1950-2000 seasonal average for ACE in the Atlantic Basin is 96.