Archive for October, 2013

Chilly inside slider headed for Mammoth Sunday AM with a chance of snowshowers in the morning. Colder Sunday…then milder Monday into Midweek……Western Pacific Typhoon WIPHA to set Stage for Change in WX pattern in the Long Range…..

 

The weather of the next few days will be cooler then Friday with a chance of some light snow showers Sunday…. Highs will cool to the mid to upper 40s at 8000 feet with lows in the low 20s Monday AM.

More importantly a couple of typhoons in the Western pacific are worth keeping an eye on. Typhoon WIPHA will be near Tokyo, Japan, Tuesday afternoon and then interacts with the baroclinic boundary just before becoming Extra Tropical by Wednesday. It looks like this TS has the potential to constructively phase with the westerly’s Wednesday which argues for some kind of a Trof by next weekend for the west coast. Nothing showing up in the GFS yet but the EC has something. Behind WIPHA is yet another Typhoon that may take a similar track. It may be that the following week around the 25th or 26 we will have something to write home about…….

 

The Models themselves become quite amplified with strong Height rises well into the Arctic over Western Canada by the end of next week. What may happen is that a belt of westerly’s may break underneath that High latitude block with a storm into at least Northern California toward the end of week 2. (Oct 25th or 26th)  Will adjust as necessary…..

 

Stay Tuned………………………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Brief Warm Up to be Followed by Cooler Temps Sunday….Followed by Warmer Temps Monday Through Thursday…..Typical October WX

Wednesday’s storm was not actually a bust….but Dug much further south then earlier predicated.  As a result, the Southern Sierra did the best precip wise with amounts close to a foot in some upper elevation areas. Aspendale received 8 to 9 inches! Over all, Mammoth got 1 to 3 inches which was at the low end of the forecast.

Lots of frost this morning on local roofs. The Aspens is some areas have been hit hard and have turned black while other areas are having a nice display. If you’re coming up for Fall colors don’t wait any longer….

October so far has verified colder than the climate forecast models earlier predicted. High temps now in the 50s with lows in the 20s.

Forecast and discussion:

Both EC and GFS show the storm system that came through here Wednesday over the northern plains states now with a dry NW flow aloft. The upstream ridge at 500mb is expected to amplify out at about 140west which will allow a short wave to dig into the Great Basin and bring some wind and cooling to our region beginning Saturday night into Sunday.  Saturday night will be breezy while Sunday will be some 5 to 7 degrees cooler. There will be some north wind as well for the Owens Valley Sunday and the valley will cool to the 60s.

Thereafter for the week of the 15th; The short wave upper ridge off shore weakens and it progresses near the Pacific Northwest coast Thursday. So at this time, next Wednesday and especially Thursday of next week look to be the warmest days with mid 70s in Bishop….plan your “Tee Times” accordingly.

By Friday….That upper ridge then collapses under the weight of a passing short wave Saturday into Sunday the 20th…..A few ensemble members split off some short wave energy and take it over the Sierra Saturday night the 19th into Sunday the 20th with some snow showers possible.  What ever happens….. it will not be a big deal…..

So….As we move past the weekend of the 20th…..Retrogression takes place in a pattern that apparently is going into transition for that following week beginning the 21st…….

ALL PASS LINE BETS OFF FOR THAT FOLLOWING WEEK……………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Cooling Trend in play as Chilly Upper Level Low over the Pacific Northwest Decends South into California Early Wednesday Morning……Light Snowfall Expected to Begin Late Wednesday AM for Mammoth Lakes…..

QPF 6:00pm Update:

No Change….

1 to 3 in town and 3 to 6 over the crest Wednesday morning through Thursday morning…..

No Surprises this morning. This mornings 12z Tuesday WRF has the path of the upper low at 500mb tracking over the western slopes of the Central Sierra by early (21z) PM Wednesday. The Upper low at 700MB at the same time is about 60 miles inland from Monterrey. UVM begins to increase over the Mammoth area around 3:00am Wednesday as “the nose” of a 140knot upper jet up over the Oregon coast stretches due south along the Northern and Central CA coast. This produces the lift necessary to begin the action. Thereafter, the upper jet begins to round the base of the upper low later in the afternoon Wednesday eventually carrying the upper low just south of Las Vegas, Nv early Thursday morning.

Moisture at 700mb increases to 50% by 12z, then 75% by 15z then 90% by 18z Wednesday morning……..Thus snow will be likely for Mammoth Lakes late Wednesday morning through the evening hours. The 90% RH pool at 700mb shifts east of Mammoth after midnight and so snow showery weather is expected to begin after midnight Wednesday night with showers diminishing through the morning hours Thursday.  Sky’s will be partly cloudy Thursday afternoon then clearing over night….  the high temperature forecast for Mammoth on Wednesday is 38 degrees.

 

Outlook:

The pattern is set up with a series of short wave dropping SE from the Gulf of AK. Subsequent short waves will be dry for the Mammoth area as Sundays short wave has the upper jet cutting SE through the Pacific Northwest then clipping NE Nevada. This system will bring some NE flow and some minor cooling along to mammoth with a period of mild off shore flow for SC. The Surface high associated with the NE Flow is way up in Montana and does not move into NV,  or a stronger Santa Ana event would develop.

As a side note, there is a more significant upper trof that is being handled differently for the global models. It bears watching. will be into the eastern pacific by about the 15 of October. The models are all over the place on that one…….anything is possible…so stay tuned for updates on that system.

Climate:

RE: Earth-Sun-Climate Effects

Some interesting new articles from scientists thinking out of the box.

1. http://www.wnd.com/2013/10/climate-guru-puts-global-warming-on-ice/print/

2. http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/paper-solar-wind-linked-electrically-to-terrestrial-mid-latitude-atmospheric-pressure-variation/

3. http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/EARTH_1890.pdf  (At least read abstract)