Archive for October, 2013

Beautiful Warm Weekend Inplay with a Cold Westside Slider on the Way……..Light Snowfall expected for Mammoth Lakes Wednesday into Thursday……

Tuesday Am Update:

QPF has settled in at between .4 and .5 .   The snowfall forecast is 1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 5 inches in the upper elevations…..

The track of the upper center is pretty much right over the top of us now and as of late….which is an adjusted slight jog to the East.

 

light Snowfall will begin during the day Wednesday and end Thursday evening.

 

More later………………………:-)

 

 

Saturday AM Update:

Mother Nature Picking up the Tempo……

Both Global Models last night still suggesting some nice light snowfall mid-week. Speed of system will determine the amount of snowfall as the American GFS model is pretty quick to move system out of here during the day Thursday. The  ECMWF delays a bit more keeping the system far enough west to continue upslope snowfall in the high country into Thursday evening and suggests up to 3 to 5 inches in the higher elevations by Thursday night. The ECMWF is certainly the most aggressive with snowfall as it is slower. By 00z Friday the EC has the upper center over Southern NV while the GFS has it over east central Utah. Both models agree on tracking the upper low far enough west for westerly flow into the coast west of Mammoth with the upper center at 500mb along with the center at 700mb very close to Mammoth Wednesday Mid afternoon.  So the upper center will “initially” be the instability that brings precip to Mammoth Mt associated with the upper low itself rather than any prolonged westerly advective flow.  On Thursday, upslope will develop as the upper center shifts south and east with NNE flow in its wake. There is some moisture indicated at 700mb that will trail the upper low Thursday by both models. Again….There will be a period of Upslope as well, but this system is not your classic inside slider any more. Track of Cold Upper Low for Mid week still suggests a model blended 4 to 5 inches over the higher elevations and even 2 to 3 inches in town.  If you have not blown your sprinklers out yet…..this weekend would be a really good time! A lot of cold air will settle over the area Thursday with possible upper teens at night in some areas.

Retrogression is apparently in the cards in the longer range as the next significant short wave digs south further west over water.  However, a strong split in the flow is noted as it approaches the coast around the 20th.  The Dweebs will have another look at that system Tuesday AM.

 

Stay Tuned……The Dweebs have you covered…………………………………………………;-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………………..:-)

Chilly Today Warm Tamale…..Upper Ridge with Warm temperatures over the Weekend to Follow Shot of Cold Air Currently Over the High Country…….Cold Inside Slider Looming for Next Week is beginning to dig further west in subsequent model runs……Will have to Keep a Weary eye on this little Bugger!

There was some light frost this morning in the Mammoth Slopes area at elevations near 8000 ft and temperatures dropped to the low 20s here near the Village. As mentioned a few days ago, the Aspens  are coming on strong now.  Color in the high country at the 8000 foot level will peak in the next 6 to 10 days……Depending upon weather. Meaning that any excessive cold snap could turn some black with a hard freeze. Time to plan that Fall trip to Mammoth as this is one of the most peaceful and beautiful times of the year in the Sierra.

Weather wise it will be cooler than normal today with light breezes in town. High temps today will be in the upper 40s at the village with another cold one tonight in the mid 20s. Gusty NE winds will blow today over the crest only.

The weather for the weekend will be a classic warm weekend with warm days and chilly nights.  Winds will for the most part will be calm with highs on Saturday in the low 60s than upper 60s on Sunday. The GFS has the upper ridge building in with 500mb Heights in the low 590s Saturday evening and 500mb to 1000mb thicknesses into the mid 570s Sunday afternoon.   So Sunday afternoon and Monday AM will produce the warmest temps in the afternoon and early AM. For you painters, Over night lows because of mild inversions will be above freezing Monday Morning at the 8,000. Elevation. Only the coldest valleys will be down to or below freezing.

Outlook Next Week:

Last nights GFS and ECMWF both came into agreement showing a cold inside slider type short wave. The models keep the strongest jet energy just off the coast.  So as the system comes in Tuesday, winds will not be a major factor here in the high country. However, as the system digs and shifts SE…..A  NNE component develops on the back side of the upper low, creating  gusty North Winds for the upper elevations Wednesday/NGT and down through the Owens Valley. It also develops some moisture at 700mb on the systems back side for Wednesday PM. Although, both models have this system as fairly moisture starved by the time it gets here with mainly over land trajectory. The EC, develops its best 700mb moisture Wednesday PM with into Thursday night. It appears that we would  be in for some “Upslope” over the Sierra Wednesday afternoon into Thursday Night if the EC is correct. The EC also has Isopleths of QPF as high as .5 near Mammoth in the most favorable areas. So it looks like we “may be” in for some light snow Wednesday into Thursday night with highs in Mammoth in the very low 40s. If the ECMWF’s QPF is correct we could see 3 to 5 inches in the most favorable areas.  Stay tuned…..

Friday 3:30PM update:

Newer guidance is showing the upper low digging a bit more west now over the top of us Wednesday afternoon. This does not change the precip forecast but increases the odds of it.  In that the GFS is beginning to get more aggressive, any further westward track by another 100s miles or so would be a game changer in the amount of snow that would fall.  Will have to keep an eye out on this little bugger……..

Note: This is preliminary as this is the Dweebs first look at this system. Updates will adjust QPF up or down as needed.

Next update Tuesday AM or Sooner….. 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………….:-)

Outstanding Fall Weather today…..Aspens Coming on Strong Now with Lots of Color to Come……Warmer then normal today with highs well into the Upper 60s….Then get ready for a Big Cool Down Thursday into Friday……Weather to stay Dry…..

Wednesday AM Update:

 

Breezes will pick up today and temperatures will be slightly cooler… low 60s…..

Moderate Winds will increase later tonight into Thursday With high temps in Mammoth cooling some 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow over today. .

It will be warmer over the weekend…..the extended shows another trof early next week so the warm up may not last that long. However confidence in the longer range now is not that great….

Lows Friday and Saturday mornings in the mid 20s….

 

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It’s October now and looking ahead the Dweebs see some very nice Fall Days. Some will be rather chilly and some will be warmer than normal.  October is the biggest month for change. Not necessary for active weather here in the high country but because of “the effects” of the transition from continental heating to the heat source of the Pacific Ocean. Over the past 4 weeks the Dweebs have noted the intensification of the westerly’s, due  primarily to the longer nights in the Arctic.

Western Pacific action has picked up with Typhoon action playing havoc with global models. The latest MJO update today shows the MJO remaining strong in Phase Space 6 which means that the Enhanced/Suppressed portion of the MJO is in the Western Pacific. This also means the possibility of more big storms in the Pacific NW with destructive phasing……or central west coast Trofing if a tropical storm constructively phases with the westerly’s over the Western Pac. Like some spring months…..Model verification is the worst in the month of October. So if you are planning on taking a long back pack trip and the weatherman says fair for a week, be prepared for the worst!

Again with the MJO in Phase Space 6, the western pacific looks to be active with typhoon action. So although the official word is for dry weather the next two weeks, the weather in the high country may change. Stay tuned to this Blog as the Dweebs will be paying close attention to the western pacific………

On a side note, check out the latest on the Sun Spot Cycle #24.  The Suns is really in a funk. A real solar hibernation is under way which solar scientists probably do not fully understand. There appears to be a correlation between the Sunspot Cycle and Weather.  Lots of studies under way.  As….This is the first time that modern science will have the opportunity to study our Star going through a solar hibernation. (The absence or the lack of significant sunspot activity).  SEE: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots  Also See: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

 

Back to Weather…..

The massive storm in the pacific northwest will wind down over the next two days. A strong short wave ridge currently north of Hawaii will progress to the west coast by this weekend.  As it approaches 140W, a chunk of cold air drives into Washington State tomorrow and then slides SE into the Great Basin. This will increase upper elevation winds 1st Wednesday afternoon/night, then surface gradients will increase as well from NNE to SSW. Cooling will begin to move into the high country Wednesday PM and intensify Thursday into Friday. The cooling will occur over land so the air mass with remain dry. Highs temperatures Thursday & Friday could be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Mammoth Lakes. Thus Highs will be some 10+ below normal.

Looking back out of the pacific, the upper ridge at 140W Wednesday then progress to the west coast by Sunday. Thus a warm up is expected over the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs will climb into the low 60s then mid and possibly upper 60s by Sunday/Monday as 500 MB heights climb to 588DM along the central coast Sunday.

The 12z GFSX has a split flow developing later next week with the possibility of a cutoff low forming off the Southern Ca Coast then Wobbling north over a few days. This may bring some showers to coastal sections of California later next week.  Again this is October and lots can happen!!!!  Its a fun month with weatherman experiencing lots of humility during some years………:-)

Wednesday Morning 10-02-13 Comment……..

CFS v2 Showing Wet November now for Ca…….

More Later….

 

The Dweeber……………………………………………..:-)