Up to a foot of fresh has fallen on Old Woolly…….More on the way………
Thursday November 21, 2013
Posted at 9:08 am by Howard
Thursday AM Update:
Storm total as of this morning as reported by Mammoth Mountain was 7 to 11 inches….pretty much in line with what the Dweebs forecasted….which was 5 to 10 inches then increased to 8 to 12 inches yesterday AM.
We still may squeeze out another 2 to 4 inches from the next system as the flow at 700mh switches and becomes NE. This is the last in the series of short wave energy with this particular Trof. This last bit of energy has already formed a closed circulation at 700MB over Central CA. The upper low will become cut off top to bottom today as it spins up into a cut off low. So an upslope pattern will develop today in the cold air. The Dweebs note that the new 12z NAM shows 700RH blowing up this afternoon over the eastern slopes between mid afternoon and this evening. No doubt there will be at least a few more inches of snowfall here and there. The Dweebs are expecting another 2 to 4 inches by late tonight. The bulk for the precip from this system will be to the south of us with areas of the Owens Valley and Southern Sierra getting quite a bit of precip south of Olancha.
Looking Down the Road:
A fair weather ridge of high pressure aloft will build in Sunday into Monday keeping the weather fair Sunday through Tuesday. The next upstream system is associated with a weather pattern with blocking in the Gulf of AK and a subtropical ridge upstream east of the Hawaiian islands. The upper height anomalies are out of phase for a deep full latitude long wave. Thus with the next system for the middle of next week (The turkey system) No pun in tended, is currently being handled with uncertainty in mind. Last nights deterministic EC closed off the system, far enough off shore that the main area of precipitation remained off shore. This is not a progressive solution. However, if you look at the ECMWF ensemble members, they are more progressive and the GFS has been and is still progressive. So The Dweebs for the time being are into the new 12z GFS solution giving us the possibility of more snowfall Later Wednesday into Turkey Day. This is a decent storm with the possibility of a foot or better. Again, we are 6 days away from next Wednesday and things can change. This is an outlook not a forecast…… Will check and see what the new 12Z Thursday ECMWF has in it this afternoon when it comes out.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)