Upper Ridge Strengthing over the the Far West……PNA begins to go positive…..So far….no meaningful let up in sight for a pattern change……may get worse before it gets better……
Tuesday December 24, 2013
Posted at 12:36 am by Howard
This is the Dweebs year end opinion edition:
I guess I can say that that for the most part that all long range forecasts…. I mean all have gone 100% bust this Fall. So with that in mind…..I too have a prediction! I predict that for the most part, this Winter forecasts will have a 50-50 chance of being wrong as well! So what does that mean? A 50/50 chance of being wrong? It means anything a long range forecaster wants it to mean after the fact!! You will find that out at the end of this snow year which ever way it turns out! 😉 I mean that if anyone pays anyone to know what this winter is going to be, they deserves what they get!
The fact is, this is a La Nada year. There is no bias in either El Nino or La Nina! So the ability to forecast this winter is pretty slim. In this case at 50%-50% in Central California. That is why the National weather service gave Central California precipitation, equal chances. Equal chance of 100% percent of normal? No…..it means that they do not know what kind of winter this is going to be because there is little or no bias! To complicate matters further, the QBO is positive, meaning that the AO and NAO teleconnections will be mostly positive…..which by the way is what this Fall has been for the most part. When this teleconnection is positive, the flow of air out of the Arctic meridianally is much less frequent or not at all. However…Now as of last the last several days of forecast model runs………… they show the AO to become negative. That means that it is going to get very cold over the eastern half of the US. What does it mean for California? Probably nothing, as the relationship of the AO is not linier in its weather effects in California. So praying for the AO to go negative is like praying to win the lottery. Its possible, but would you really spend your last dollar trying to win it?
Now with all that said, there is still plenty of time for this winter to come back…… When that might be is not known…..The CFS is interesting for the 2nd half for January….but I would not go to the bank on that….No.
If I sound cynical this evening…your probably right…..
I hope to feel better in the morning……………………………..