Another Dry Week ahead for California…….However some Light Snow showers possible later this week……Long Range Outlook still shows well below normal precipitation for California…….
Monday January 6, 2014
Posted at 9:02 am by Howard
Through the ugliness of the pattern, we should all be thankful of the great job Cliff Mann and Mammoth Mt has been doing, keeping so many acres open via snowmaking with good skiing and Boarding. I understand that skiers and boarders are coming from all areas of the west to ski Mammoth Mountain as ski conditions are the best in the west! I will have more detail on all this in the next day or two…
I just had a look at the 360 hour ECMWF Ensembles and Control Ensembles. They are Baaaad to the Bone. I mention this as I have had a lot of my blog followers sending me copies of both the Canadian and GFS ensembles and control ensembles as of late. As a comment…. I do not know why but the ECMWF model is far superior in their Long Range forecast so what ever the Europeans are putting in their modeling they do it better than both the Canadians and the Yanks! And I consider myself a patriot! Just ask O’Reilly! 😉 Did I spell that right. I thought that it was I before E except after C.
The Good news I hear from a reliable source is that NCEP is about to get some money left over from the grant money for Hurricane Sandy. It has been touted that a major upgrade to the GFS is coming later this year. So hang in their Dweebs and Weather Weenies, help and salvation is on the way! It’s probably not a cure for this ugly drought, but at least when the EC says there’s no hope for two weeks, the GFS will be in agreement!
Lots of high clouds are streaming in from a subtropical upper low NE of the Big Island of Hawaii. This upper low is kinda like a Kona Low. However, it is displaced about 15 degrees to the east along 150W. It is tapping deep tropical moisture from the ITCZ, south to 8 degree north. The plume, should it make it to the west coast would bring a bonanza of rain to Ca. However, that is not going to happen. Instead, it is effectively being blocked by a subtropical ridge, anchored well west of Southern Baja.
So what we have going on now…..is a weakening of the west coast ridge in response to the excessive wave length caused by the exit of the east coast trof moving out over the Atlantic. This is allowing high level moisture to move into our region as well as some weak short waves with some light precipitation possibilities Thursday and over the weekend.
The west coast ridge this winter thus far has been extremely effective in keeping CA dry. During many drought patterns/years, we at the least get trofs splitting as they move on shore over California, which may be a nuisance for forecasters as their forecast credibility tends to diminish. However this year so far, WX forecasters have probably had one of their best forecast years percentage wise, simply because it has been a fair weather forecast for weeks!
Over the past month, the upper ridge has been shifting east and west between about 140W and 120W. If it were to occasionally shift a bit further east….The west coast would be teleconnected into a positive PNA pattern. As a result, we would probably have more of a central West Coast splitting pattern as well. But at the least we would get some snowfall.
On an optimistic note, there is some suggestion in the CFS and GFS that out in time, called (fantasy land), there may be a change that will affect the eastern pacific ridge and allow a branch of the westerly’s into California, beginning about the 20th of January. Remember, this is only a chance as the ECMWF (EURO) does not show that. On another optimistic note, we are now getting to a point in time that on a statistical basis, that some thing should break through and give us a storm that would give us a few inches of water over a couple of days. As even in the driest years, we can get a day or two of a good shot of snowfall……then go dry again.
So to add it all up…
Lots of high clouds the next 5 days…. Some snow showers possible Thursday AM and again Late Saturday. Both of these waves will bring a cooler air mass to the area and that is a good thing as Mammoth Mt can continue to make snow. Each one of these short waves may bring anywhere from nothing to as much as a couple of inches.
Beyond the coming weekend we ridge up with vengeance through much of the following week. Remember, during the last 10 days of this month, there is a chance of some snowfall. That period begins not next week but the week after……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………….:-)
This mornings guidance still shows the same sad story for precipitation possibilities….. As although the Eastern Pacific ridge will weaken…..systems coming through the ridge will weaken as well keeping them moisture starved. I counted 5 weak short wave that will come though this week. Only two of them have the possibly of bringing some snow showers or a short period of light snowfall over the upper elevation’s. At the moment, only a few hundreds of an inch is forecasted this week over the high country through Sunday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler this week and there will be periods of winds over the Sierra Crest. Expect high temps in the 40s and lows in the teens and 20s this week. There will be two periods of some very light precipitation. It looks to be Thursday and Saturday night. Week two is also looking dry. Climate models show a chance of a change in the pattern about the end of the month. However, it is only a chance…..
Here are some tips that you can do to be proactive about water conservation………
Tips on conserving water:
• Water landscaping only when necessary, and only in morning or evening. In winter, most yards need watering only once a week (currently this is for residents of the Owens Valley)
• Use a broom instead of a hose to clean driveways, sidewalks, gutters and decks.
• Install automatic shut-off nozzles on all hoses.
For Mammoth Residents:
• Turn off water at the sink while brushing teeth, shaving and washing up. Take shorter showers.
• Wash only full loads of clothes and dishes.
• Fix leaky faucets.
• Install water-wise appliances, like low-flow toilets and shower-head and faucet aerators.
Later this Spring:
• Replace your lawn with native plants and a drip irrigation system.
Source: Association of California Water Agencies, http://www.saveourh2o.org/