Weather to remain warmer then normal and precipitation free through next Tuesday with just some high clouds Saturday Ngt and Sunday…..Change in the pattern coming up by 1st week of February…..
Wednesday January 15, 2014
Posted at 9:03 am by Howard
Friday PM Update:
Flip Flopping Models a good sign that a change in the pattern is still in the works by end of January. Both Ensemble Control’s of the 12z ECMWF and GFS Still indicated a change in the pattern the end of the month. Both have a System coming through the State….
So hang in there and try not to flip-flop emotionally with the models as well
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)
New ECMWF model continues the trend of a significant storm before the end of the month. The American models have it as well but apparently the American models are not yet as bullish. The timing is a moving target. Now possibly around the 28th of January.
What’s positive about the change is that it would be a strong system out of the west which would be moisture leaden. In that the Dweebs are talking about 2 weeks away, it is not in the basket for sure, but there are signs that are positive. The ECMWF control model is showing about 18 to 24 inches of snow for the sierra. But again this is very preliminary and subject to change either way. The model ensembles are building a case for support.
12:00 Noon Update:
Just a quick note to let our fellow Dweebs know that a weak short wave will make an attempt to more through Southern CA about the 23rd. It will be weakening, both as it moves to the coast and on shore. With relevance to our area, I do expect much. anywhere from nothing to a few inches. This is the way it looks based upon both 12Z Thursday runs.
It should be noted that the mean ridge position has not changed. It is just that the bulk of the upper heights pull to the far north over AK for a weakness or weak split branch of the Westerlies to move to the south of us. This track mainly favorites the Tehachapi’s and Southern CA Mts. Although both EC and GFS has it on this mornings 12Z run, this is not a wet pattern and only appears to be a singularity in the sense that it is one short wave.
While California precipitation records fall by the wayside…..Mammoth Mountain continues to make snow and freshen up the runs that need it most. Fresh corduroy was generated on Chairs, 3, 4, 5 and 2 the last two nights where it was needed most. Contrary to some rumors, Mammoth Mt still has plenty water to make more snow when needed.
The upper pattern from the eastern pacific into the Great Basin shows a strong +PNA with a modestly negative AO and a fairly neutral NAO which is surprising for the amount of meridianal Flow expected east of the Rockies the coming two weeks. The MJO is moderate in Phase 6 which is helping to support the existing pattern. The MJO will eventually shift into phase 7 then weaken rapidly which does not support under cutting of the westerlies. With that said, there will be retrogression at the end of the month in the long wave features as forecasted by all global models. So there is going to be a pattern change as well.
Even though interseasonal models are suggesting that weeks 3 and 4 are wet as we begin February, there is no confidence this far out based upon persistence. More time will be needed with more forecast model runs in week’s one and two for confidence to what the new pattern will look like. The Dweebs have always said that we could go from one dry pattern to another. Or, we may have a significant change to wet long enough to get some serious water.
From the Dweebs perspective, as long as the MJO remains in phases 6 and 7, it is unlikely that a break through of the westerlies will occur. Yesterdays ECMWF 12Z run was pretty exciting, as it showed a vengeful amount of energy under-cutting the upper ridge that retrogrades west. However, there was no follow through with the EC 00z Wednesday Run.
So we are at a wait and see point of view…..Again it looks like a significant change will occur in the pattern but whether it will be a wet one is unknown at this time.
In the meantime, 500mb heights will remain high over the far west generating both high temperature records and 100+ year old precipitation records for many areas of the state. Some of these records go back to the 19th century.
Temperatures in the Bishop area will be in the low to mid 70s the next few days which are record, to near record highs. The current mid winter warm spell will peak Thursday and Friday here in Eastern Ca.
Forecast: Mammoth Lakes…..Dry through Tuesday. High temps Mid to upper 50s through Saturday. Lows the next 3 to 5 days at 8000, 27 to 32. Light breezes from the North.
Outlook: Saturday night and Sunday’s skies are expected to have high cloudiness with slightly cooler temperatures. Next chance of a weather system that will bring more extensive cloudiness, cooling and the slight chance of showers is about mid-week next week. (Around the 23rd)
Next Update Friday……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)