Upper trof is now moving on shore over LA and taking the remains of the moisture with it. Lots of showers and thunderstorms in the LA area with a few real boomers!. With the upper blocking high exiting Alaska to Siberia, a flip in both the WPO and EPO will allow long wave trofing to reemerge between the Hawaiian islands and the Dateline. This teleconnects well with long wave ridging over the west coast and an upper jet displaced far to the north of us. This is the trend over the next 7 days. Initially the upper ridge will be dirty and so lots of high clouds over running the ridge, on and off next week. Possibly some showers later in the week around Wednesday or Thursday. The snow level will be high above 9K.

Of interest.   Tropical Storm FAXIE has sustained winds of 50 knots. It is located at 149East and 10 North, moving North  It will intensify the next 3 day and become a major Typhoon. Its moisture will eventually become entrained in the westerly’s.  Northern Ca northward through the pacific NW and especially the BC coast is going to get a lots of rain from the short waves tapping that moisture source later next week  For most of Central California, and southern is out of it as the upper ridge gradually builds and strengthens.

More food for thought:

Tropical storm FAXIE is developing because of an intensifying MJO between phases 7 and 8. (Western Pacific) The dynamic model forecasts the MJO to progress through phases 8, 1 and 2.  however in the meantime the GFS and EC keep the MJO strong in phase late 7 and 8.  Of note, there is the possibility of the reemergence of a southerly displaced EAJ with another Southern or Central CA weather event similar to the one just passing by mid March. The ECMWF is hinting at that now.


For the more advanced Dweebs…..Here are some composites correlating the MJO with its phase space, the month of year and the height field of what you might expect.  (GOOD STUFF!)  SEE: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..:-)