Beautiful Weekend with Springtime Afternoon Buildups….A Few Flurries during the late afternoon then a Fair and Warmer Sunday with still some build ups……Changes in the Pattern for Mid Week will bring Snowfall….
Saturday March 22, 2014
Posted at 2:59 pm by Howard
No change to earlier thinking with the timing of the beginning of the precip into the high country early Tuesday evening. Snow Levels crash Tuesday night with snowfall accumulations good enough for a plow expected in the morning….then again in the late afternoon.
The big change is in the longer range, with the system for Sunday coming in earlier now and not splitting like before. The Sierra stands a good chance of a better outcome snowfall wise Sunday with another system hot on its heals Monday into Tuesday. April Roars in like a Lion? 😉
Sunday PM Update:
Some small changes in the short and medium range. IE it looks like a storm capable of producing a good foot of fresh now at the snow plot/main lodge. The newer guidance beefs up the QPF up about another .25 by continuing the snowfall well into the afternoon now. So the crest may get between 15 and 18+inches now By Thursday AM. I say plus, because;
1. There is a decent orographic component to the flow at 700mb up until the front comes through just before noon Wednesday, as well as the upper jet in the right spot dynamically earlier in the AM. That in itself, tends to give Mammoth more than what is expected over the upper elevations. Highs Wednesday near 40.
2. There is now at least one additional Vort Center that will come through in the afternoon Wednesday and the RH at 700MB is in the 90% range on the EC’s 12Z run at 2100z time. So although there may be a break in the action just after the front comes through, snowfall will pick up again fairly quickly in the early afternoon and continue through the remainder of the day. Snow showers will continue into the evening will less accumulation. Lows Thursday Am in the teens and 20s
3. This will be followed by the typical March instability (Cold air aloft/surface convection) which tends to keep the snow showers going another day, but light Accumulation’s only Thursday. Friday looks partly cloudy w/flurries and milder.
The longer range; IE the end of this week, shows the energy of the short wave of interest next weekend, splitting south into Southern CA now. Although this is not entirely unexpected, the split may be big enough for little if any snowfall to occur in Mammoth Lakes the end of the month. Lots of time to adjust though…..so for now, will play the wait and see and hope for the models flip back!!
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)
An Upper High is Building in Central CA nicely today and will strengthen further bringing a warmer day tomorrow Sunday. There may even be a few flurries in the afternoon both Saturday and Sunday. These are not associated with any storm….Its just Springtime in the Sierra!
Looking down the road a few days ahead, the upper ridge will give way to a spring storm Tuesday night into Thursday. This is not expected to be a major storm….however, we may get 6 to 12 on Mammoth MT and some 3 to 6 inches in the residential areas of town. The snow level will begin at about 7000 feet Tuesday night, than lower down to about 5500 by Wednesday. The heaviest period of precip will occur from about Day-Break Wednesday to about 12:00pm when the nose of a 105knot upper jet comes through Paso Robles….
The good news is that the pattern looks wetter after words with another storm by about Sunday with several more systems expected into April. If the Sunday storm on the 30th is not late, another inch of water is possible on the Mammoth Pass by the end of the month.
And…..The Climate Forecast System (CFS) has between 5 and 6 inches of water in the forecast for the month of April! Would that not be nice! For May, about another 1/2 to an inch! So the Spring looks wet by those numbers.
What the Dweebs are seeing is a persistent block over AK with a low pressure anomaly south of the North Pacific. The -EP/NP in April is typically a dry pattern here in the month of April in California. However the AO is positive and so the pattern across the US is going to be progressive and an excessive wave length should keep the short waves coming right on into California during the month of April. As of note and of course at this time….The Sunday system next week looks like it is more of a mid latitude storm, and so Southern California may benefit more than Central Ca.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)