Although this first storm system looks weaker now….The hits will keep on coming as moderate to possibly heavy systems line up for their move into CA
Tuesday March 25, 2014
Posted at 10:26 am by Howard
Fellow Dweeb Dan McConnel just texted me from the top of Mammoth Mt. He Indicated that there was almost 18 of fresh snow on top from the last storm…. Great News….!
Just checked in with Joni Lynch at Marketing for Mammoth Mt. She indicated that Mammoth Mt still plans on being open until Memorial Weekend. That Canyon and Little Eagle lodges will stay open until the 20th of April.
The Weather is now really cooperating. We have a series of storms that will be bringing new snowfall through Tuesday of next week. The Dweebs expect the Saturday night storm to be capable of at least 1 to 2 feet now and that more will fall from the Monday/Tuesday Storm. In fact the national weather service has already hoisted Winter Storm Watches for the Sierra. This system has a rich moisture tap from the Subtropics. Will update the QPF Friday.
Although the outlook calls for a break the 2nd half of next week, the long range shows the potential for another 60 to 70 inches of snow over the upper elevations through early May!
Mammoth Mtn reported a foot at the main lodge……There was 4 to 6 inches in town….possibly 15 inches over the Crest.
Brief update……Storm has exited the area. Unstable air aloft in the wake of the storm will still produce some snow shower activity today. Friday will be dry and a good travel day if you’re traveling up to the high country. The next storm will move in Late Morning Saturday and by Sunday we expect another 1 to 1.5 feet over the upper elevations.
It will be snow showery Sunday morning…..The next system is for Monday afternoon and night……..High temps in town in the 30s today and 40s on Friday…..More later……>>>
Wednesday Update: 9:25AM
At this time, some sunshine is peaking through….we are in-between bands of snow. Another band has left the Bay Area and is now into the SJV…So more snowfall is expected a little later this AM.
Amounts seem pretty consistent with yesterdays discussion. An Updated 3 to 8 inches in general for Mono County excluding the upper elevations 9K to 11K where amounts will be in the 12 to 16 inches range by Thursday AM.
The next storm for Saturday is on track to bring about a foot to a foot++ over the upper elevations Saturday afternoon/night.
The following storm for Monday afternoon, “and this is an update from this morning”, is much larger now, showing up on the 12Z GFS as a storm capable to 2 feet+…..
As is often the case, the 3rd in the series is the biggest as it often has the most upstream amplification. This system has an initial confluence of the subtropical jet and it could really have explosive development…..More later in this particular storm for Monday/Tuesday…..
There after….. the models still have more storminess in our future, well into May.
The Sub-Climate model “CFS” from NCEP shows 6 to 7 inches of water between today and the 10th of May. That would be another 60 to 70 inches of snow at 10:1.
Better late then never?……………………..Don’t you hate snow farming?
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)
This mornings computer output did scale back a bit on snowfall estimates with amounts probably closer to a foot+, than earlier predictions of up to 1.5 feet over the highest elevations. Satellite loop this AM did show the front developing a forked tail in the southern section, indicating a break within the front and a less steady precipitation pattern expected late tonight into Wednesday. It will certainly be the 2nd section that will bring the burst of heavier snowfall later Wednesday AM and with the upper jet still favorable early in the PM that should keep things going longer post frontal. So the Dweebs will scale back the snowfall estimates for the Tuesday night/ Wednesday system a bit. The town should still get somewhere in the 4 to 7 inches range, bottom to top, by the end of the day Wednesday.
It may not be a two plow storm but a good one plow by the end of the day Wednesday.
Thursday will be showery with upslope westerly flow. There may be a few more inches possible as well with more over the crest.
If I were a blue bird, I would be singing my tune early Friday AM to the delight of the skiers and boarder’s. So plan on getting up early to Cut it, as the winds will be coming up in the afternoon, ahead of the next storm Saturday.
The next shot of snowfall will move in Saturday afternoon, (timing subject to change) and into the night. Again, that will be preceded by some pretty strong gusty winds Friday night into Saturday. Sunday looks showery…..then another storm expected to hit Monday PM into Tuesday……..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)