Storm System Now Approaching Mammoth will bring Snowfall over two periods……..Both precip periods will bring higher Snowfall Ratios…..Fair warmer weekend is expected
Monday March 31, 2014
Posted at 9:44 am by Howard
Platinum Powder Alert continues for the high country for Tuesday Morning with a foot plus expected over the Crest. The Dweebs use the Crest because of the temperatures expected their in qualifying at for least 15:1 or better for the Ratios. Also needed is at least a foot+ of fresh….that is expected by Tuesday AM. (The Storm is coming into our area in two parts)
Part 1. Precipitation will be the heaviest averaging between .5 and 1.00 over the orographically-favored terrain of the sierra. The most favorable area from the exit region of the front left quad with its forcing and upper diffluence and lower level moisture transport puts Mammoth in the Bull’s-eye, today and tonight. Snow to water rations of between 15&17:1 will be centered over the higher elevations of the sierra tonight.
Part 2. The upper low, now well west of the Columbia River will continue to drift SE toward the Bay Area with a well-defined mid level short wave. This feature shows a jet streak ejecting out ahead through Central CA and into the Great Basin. The progs locate the upper low over SFO 12Z Wednesday AM as it opens it into an open wave and kicks SE through the Sierra in the AM. There may be a short period of time where there is a weak circulation center at 700mb over/near Tonopah, NV for about 6 hours of upslope for a few more inches of lee side snowfall Wednesday.
Although this storm does not have nearly the PWAT that the last had….It is much colder and more dynamic than our weekend system and so snowfall amounts could be greater by Wednesday PM Between 1 to 2 feet over the upper elevations.
There is a splitting system that will be effecting our area Friday PM….In which we may get some show showers. Based upon the new 12Z GFS guidance there does not appear to be much of any accumulation for our area.
Inter Seasonal Precip:
Took a look at the latest CFS long-range: It shows 4 inches of QPF for the month of April and .5 for May through mid-month. So Spring may have another 4 feet of snow left in it through the middle of May.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)