Temperatures will peak out today as Strong Upper Ridge has shifted over the Great Basin…..Weak Upper Low Approaching Southern CA may bring a few showers Friday……Above normal temps to continue into the following week…..
Tuesday April 8, 2014
Posted at 10:31 am by Howard
The High temperature in Bishop was 85 yesterday…Mid 60s in Mammoth. Expect similar highs today with partly cloudy skies this afternoon.
Latest Satellite motion shows quite a subtropical plum developing ahead of a Quasi mid latitude upper low about 31 North – 137W, it is tracking ENE and the latest WRF guidance will take it on shore Friday night about midnight near the channel islands north of Malibu. The upper jet is clearly well south into Southern Ca. A closer look at this system shows mostly high clouds. However there will be a deepening marine layer for Southern Cal so there will be lots of fog and drizzle over the weekend. For the Sierra, it appears that the best diffluence and divergence will be south of Mammoth. However, I still can not rule out the chance of some showers Friday afternoon and evening as well as Saturday as the lapse rates will increase because of cooling aloft. With the higher mid April sun, convection related showers are possible, IE Diurnal. So it is doubtful if any nocturnal percip will happen, given the current track of the upper low, which is now displaced just south of PT Conception. The Dweebs will mention that this is south of the Ensembles. So if the new WRF guidance is wrong and the track remains north of Pt. Conception, that would allow some precip to occur nocturnally as the forcing would be further north as well. Will take another look at it tomorrow AM.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)
Spectacular is word for Mammoths weather today…..highs in the mid 60s, lows in the 30s. No Significant wind. Highs 15 degrees above normal….the Bishop temperature forecast is for a high of 84!
Forecast and Discussion:
The west coast upper ridge has shifted into the Great Basin and with a slight southerly flow, temps will peak out today. The upper ridge will weaken a bit Wednesday. The guidance flattens the ridge Wednesday in response to a weak short wave tracking through the Pacific Northwest. Some slight height and 500-1000 thickness falls occurs tomorrow, as well as a slight pick up in breeze. However….temps remain well above normal. Thereafter a closed low develops out over the eastern pacific and shifts towards Southern CA. No doubt So-Cal will see an increased marine layer as well with the possibility of some drizzle or sprinkles Thursday night and Friday.
For Mammoth….The Dweebs expect an increase of mostly high level moisture as it swings SE Friday into Saturday. So lots of clouds Friday in Mammoth and into the night. There may be a few showers in the PM. Because of the cloud cover, expect temps to dip into the upper 50s Friday and remain there through Saturday. Another upper ridge will move through Sunday into Monday and so it may be a few degrees warmer Sunday into Monday as well. Over all, temps running between 5 to 10 above Climo over the weekend so pretty nice.
Next pattern change will be later neat week……IE Cooler WX
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)